US in record hurricane drought, June 1, 2013 will be 2777 days. Only 3 storms like Sandy documented since 1900: 1904, 1924, and 1925, 'making landfall as post-tropical cyclone of hurricane strength'

12/3/12, "Record US Intense Hurricane Drought Continues," Roger Pielke, Jr.

"The graph above provides an update to data on the remarkable ongoing US "intense hurricane drought." When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900.

Some thoughts:

Even with hurricane Sandy and its wide impacts, things will indeed get worse. The US coastlines as a whole have actually been very lucky with respect to hurricanes since 2005, with aggregate damage (even including aggressive estimates for Sandy) 2006-2012 falling at or below the historical average.  

Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone of hurricane strength -- a phenomena that has only been documented 3 times since 1900 (1904, 1924, 1925 -- later this week I'll have a post on Sandy damage estimates).

The long-term intense hurricane drought means that a mere "regression to the mean" will see more hurricane landfalls and considerably higher damage in the years to come. The fashionable talk these days of a "new normal" is of course utter bullsh*t. Just wait until we return to the "old normal" -- I know that it may be hard to believe, but both hurricane damage and climate hype are set to increase dramatically in the years to come."

Prof. Pielke added the following in his comments about the graph: "The X-axis shows landfalling storm count in chronological order starting in 1900 (with the 78th landfall occuring in 2005, we still await the 79th). The bars show days between successive storm landfalls. The red line shows the trend."

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10/31/12, "Roger Pielke: Hurricanes and Human Choice," Wall St. Journal

"So how can today's disasters, even if less physically powerful than previous ones, have such staggering financial costs? One reason: There are more people and more wealth in harm's way."...

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Among comments:

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1. "Papa Zu said...

Roger I like your nice guy truth to science approach, but let's be 
honest it is no match for 
.
the climate change PR machine
.
amassed by NGOs and pushing the notion that man has caused 

more hurricanes.
.
The only new normal I see is for climate blame irrationalism.  

Mon Dec 03, 10:53:00 AM MST"

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5. "Brian

Roger,

You say

"The long-term intense hurricane drought means that a mere "regression to the mean" will see more hurricane landfalls and considerably higher damage in the years to come."

I agree with your statement in the sense that the lucky streak is guaranteed to end eventually, and we will have one or more Cat. 3+ hurricanes strike the U.S. and cause huge damage.

On the other hand, in the broader sense I don't agree that we should see more hurricane landfalls (not even intense ones) in the next few years or decades. The AMO, for example, reached its peak around 2005 and is now on its way down. Hurricanes should be less likely and less powerful during that phase, which should last a few more decades. I expect you'll be retired before we see a significant upswing in the overall number or strength. Tue Dec 04, 10:52:00 AM MST"












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