George Soros gave Ivanka's husband's business a $250 million credit line in 2015 per WSJ. Soros is also an investor in Jared's business.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Tunisian court sentences British DJ to year in jail after he played a dance remix of Muslim call to prayer. DJ Dax J has already fled the country and apologized-BBC

4/6/17, "Tunisia sentences British DJ for Muslim prayer remix," BBC 

"A Tunisian court has sentenced a British DJ to a year in jail after he played a dance remix of the Muslim call to prayer

The DJ, known as Dax J, was charged with public indecency and offending public morality

He has already fled the country, and made a public apology.

The nightclub was shut down after footage of the weekend's event was shared on social media and sparked outrage.

A court spokesperson told AFP news agency that the court dismissed charges against the nightclub owner and an event organiser, but the prosecution has appealed saying the two should have checked what the DJ would be playing.

The event was part of Orbit Festival in Nabeul in the country's north-east. The footage showed clubbers dancing to music played by two European DJs. 

The music included a dance version of the call to prayer, the religious act that Muslims perform five times a day.
"We will not allow attacks against religious feelings and the sacred," the governor of Nabeul, Mnaouar Ouertani, said when the club was shut down. 

Earlier in the week, the organisers of the Orbit Festival apologised in a post on the event's Facebook page, but said that they did not accept responsibility for the playing of any offensive music.

The DJ "did not realise it might offend an audience from a Muslim country like ours," they said in the post (in French). 

Dax J has offered his "sincere apologies to anyone who may have been offended by music that I played at Orbit Festival in Tunisia on Friday".

"It was never my intention to upset or cause offence to anybody," he said."




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Egyptian President al-Sisi expresses his optimism about President Trump in interview broadcast 4/5/17

4/5/17, Following is excerpt from Egyptian President al-Sisi interview with Bret Baier broadcast 4/5/17 on Fox News. Transcript excerpts are by The Conservative Treehouse via Fox News video: 4/5/17, "President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Discusses His Optimism for President Trump’s Freedom Alliance," tcth, sundance

"Brett Baier: Your assessment of President Trump? 

al-Sisi: “I first saw the campaign of his excellency President Trump, and I listened to his speech of the neccessity of facing and confronting terrorism all over the world; that he is a great personality and a unique individual, and that he will find great success.” “I fully trust the capabilities of President Trump, and I have full conviction that he can do things, exert efforts, that very few people can do.  And he can succeed in so many fields that others cannot.  I trust him wholeheartedly.  And again, I congratulate you for having him.” 

Baier: I know you were one of the first to call and congratulate him, if not the first; what is your relationship like between you two? 

al-Sisi: “I followed all his announcements through his campaign, he has a very unique personality and administration, and now I’m speaking with full confidence of unprecedented success for him.  He is seeking the interests of the United States and the American people in a very clear manner, and a very direct manner. And a very strong manner as well.” “His true will is a very strong will to counter terrorism and extremism in the world; and that is a very strong commitment from his excellency the president, and in addition I am very supportive with full force in facing this terrorism.” 

Baier:  Did President Trump talk about aid to Egypt?

al-Sisi:  “All I can say in this regard is that his excellency the President promised to support Egypt, with very strong support. And I trust his promise.” 

Baier: You expressed concerns with President Obama. Obviously President Trump is establishing a different relationship with Egypt, can you talk about that difference? 

al-Sisi:  “That is true, this is true.  There is a true understanding to the realities in the region, and there is a seriousness and responsible actions in facing extremism and terrorism in the region, and that’s a wonderful thing indeed.  There is nothing better than to counter evil. 

Baier:  So it's very different? 

al-Sisi: Yes!

Baier: I get the English “Yes” for that?

al-Sisi: YES !  (Laughing)"...
....................... 

Preview: Entire region has suffered in recent years:

 4/3/17, "Exclusive: Egyptian President Talks to Bret Baier About Meeting With Trump," Fox News

"In a preview clip, Sisi spoke about Russia's involvement in Syria and interests in the Middle East. He said that the vacuum left by the Obama administration enabled Russia to take a greater foothold in the region. 

"Many things over the last four years occurred and caused many, many problems," Sisi said. "That's a fact. The region is paying a very heavy price for that, not just Syria. The entire region is paying that price.""...
.......... 








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Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Trump eagerly joins warmonger NY Times on key issue of Syria 'regime change,' NY Times returns favor by citing their new pal Trump as reliable source on Syria. Globalist NY Times favors silencing and enslavement of US taxpayers to Endless War profiteers-Robert Parry, Consortium News, 4/5/17. EU official got propaganda ball rolling early. (All pro-war propaganda is aimed at US taxpayers without whom Endless War profiteers couldn't exist)

"Perhaps for the first time, The New York Times cited President Trump as a reliable source because he and his press secretary were saying what the Times wanted to hear–that Assad must be guilty."

4/5/17, "Another Dangerous Rush to Judgment in Syria," Robert Parry, Consortium News

"Exclusive: The U.S. government and the mainstream media rushed to judgment again, blaming the Syrian government for a new poison-gas attack and ignoring other possibilities, reports Robert Parry."

"With the latest hasty judgment about Tuesday’s poison-gas deaths in a rebel-held area of northern Syria, the mainstream U.S. news media once more reveals itself to be a threat to responsible journalism and to the future of humanity. Again, we see the troubling pattern of verdict first, investigation later, even when that behavior can lead to a dangerous war escalation and many more deaths.

Before a careful evaluation of the evidence about Tuesday’s tragedy was possible, The New York Times and other major U.S. news outlets had pinned the blame for the scores of dead on the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. That revived demands that the U.S. and other nations establish a “no-fly zone” over Syria, which would amount to launching another “regime change” war and would put America into a likely hot war with nuclear-armed Russia
.
Even as basic facts were still being assembled about Tuesday’s incident, we, the public, were prepped to disbelieve the Syrian government’s response that the poison gas may have come from rebel stockpiles that could have been released either accidentally or intentionally causing the civilian deaths in a town in Idlib Province.

One possible scenario was that Syrian warplanes bombed a rebel weapons depot where the poison gas was stored, causing the containers to rupture. Another possibility was a staged event by increasingly desperate Al Qaeda jihadists who are known for their disregard for innocent human life.

While it’s hard to know at this early stage what’s true and what’s not, these alternative explanations, I’m told, are being seriously examined by U.S. intelligence. One source cited the possibility that Turkey had supplied the rebels with the poison gas (the exact type still not determined) for potential use against Kurdish forces operating in northern Syria near the Turkish border or for a terror attack in a government-controlled city like the capital of Damascus.

Reporting by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh and statements by some Turkish police and opposition politicians linked Turkish intelligence and Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists to the Aug. 21, 2013 sarin gas attack outside Damascus that killed hundreds, although the Times and other major U.S. news outlets continue to blame that incident on Assad’s regime.

Seasoned Propagandists

On Tuesday, the Times assigned two of its most committed anti-Syrian-government propagandists to cover the Syrian poison-gas story, Michael B. Gordon and Anne Barnard....

Gordon has been at the front lines of the neocon “regime change” strategies for years. He co-authored the Times’ infamous aluminum tube story of Sept. 8, 2002, which relied on U.S. government sources and Iraqi defectors to frighten Americans with images of “mushroom clouds” if they didn’t support President George W. Bush’s upcoming invasion of Iraq. The timing played perfectly into the administration’s advertising “rollout” for the Iraq War.

Of course, the story turned out to be false and to have unfairly downplayed skeptics of the claim that the aluminum tubes were for nuclear centrifuges, when the aluminum tubes actually were meant for artillery. But the article provided a great impetus toward the Iraq War, which ended up killing nearly 4,500 U.S. soldiers and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

Gordon’s co-author, Judith Miller, became the only U.S. journalist known to have lost a job over the reckless and shoddy reporting that contributed to the Iraq disaster. For his part, Gordon continued serving as a respected Pentagon correspondent.

Gordon’s name also showed up in a supporting role on the Times’ botched “vector analysis,” which supposedly proved that the Syrian military was responsible for the Aug. 21, 2013 sarin-gas attack. The “vector analysis” story of Sept. 17, 2013, traced the flight paths of two rockets, recovered in suburbs of Damascus back to a Syrian military base 9.5 kilometers away.

The article became the “slam-dunk” evidence that the Syrian government was lying when it denied launching the sarin attack. However, like the aluminum tube story, the Times’ ”vector analysis” ignored contrary evidence, such as the unreliability of one azimuth from a rocket that landed in Moadamiya because it had struck a building in its descent. That rocket also was found to contain no sarin, so it’s inclusion in the vectoring of two sarin-laden rockets made no sense.

But the Times’ story ultimately fell apart when rocket scientists analyzed the one sarin-laden rocket that had landed in the Zamalka area and determined that it had a maximum range of about two kilometers, meaning that it could not have originated from the Syrian military base. C.J. Chivers, one of the co-authors of the article, waited until Dec. 28, 2013, to publish a halfhearted semi-retraction. [See Consortiumnews.com’s NYT Backs Off Its Syria-Sarin Analysis.”]

Gordon was a co-author of another bogus Times’ front-page story on April 21, 2014, when the State Department and the Ukrainian government fed the Times two photographs that supposedly proved that a group of Russian soldiers – first photographed in Russia – had entered Ukraine, where they were photographed again.

However, two days later, Gordon was forced to pen a retraction because it turned out that both photos had been shot inside Ukraine, destroying the story’s premise. [See Consortiumnews.com’s “NYT Retracts Russian-Photo Scoop.”]

Gordon perhaps personifies better than anyone how mainstream journalism works. If you publish false stories that fit with the Establishment’s narratives, your job is safe even if the stories blow up in your face. However, if you go against the grain – and if someone important raises a question about your story – you can easily find yourself out on the street even if your story is correct.

No Skepticism Allowed

Anne Barnard, Gordon’s co-author on Tuesday’s Syrian poison-gas story, has consistently reported on the Syrian conflict as if she were a press agent for the rebels, playing up their anti-government claims even when there’s no evidence.


"A heart-rending propaganda image designed to justify a major U.S. military operation inside Syria against the Syrian military."

For instance, on June 2, 2015, Barnard, who is based in Beirut, Lebanon, authored a front-page story that pushed the rebels’ propaganda theme that the Syrian government was somehow in cahoots with the Islamic State though even the U.S. State Department acknowledged that it had no confirmation of the rebels’ claims.

When Gordon and Barnard teamed up to report on the latest Syrian tragedy, they again showed no skepticism about early U.S. government and Syrian rebel [terrorist] claims that the Syrian military was responsible for intentionally deploying poison gas.

Perhaps for the first time, The New York Times cited President Trump as a reliable source because he and his press secretary were saying what the Times wanted to hearthat Assad must be guilty.

Gordon and Barnard also cited the controversial White Helmets, the rebels’ Western-financed civil defense group that has worked in close proximity with Al Qaeda’s Nusra Front and has come under suspicion of staging heroic “rescues” but is nevertheless treated as a fount of truth-telling by the mainstream U.S. news media.

In early online versions of the Times’ story, a reaction from the Syrian military was buried deep in the article around the 27th paragraph, noting: “The government denies that it has used chemical weapons, arguing that insurgents and Islamic State fighters use toxins to frame the government or that the attacks are staged.”

The following paragraph mentioned the possibility that a Syrian bombing raid had struck a rebel warehouse where poison-gas was stored, thus releasing it unintentionally.

But the placement of the response was a clear message that the Times disbelieved whatever the Assad government said. At least in the version of the story that appeared in the morning newspaper, a government statement was moved up to the sixth paragraph although still surrounded by comments meant to signal the Times’ acceptance of the rebel version.

After noting the Assad government’s denial, Gordon and Barnard added, “But only the Syrian military had the ability and the motive to carry out an aerial attack like the one that struck the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun.”

But they again ignored the alternative possibilities. One was that a bombing raid ruptured containers for chemicals that the rebels were planning to use in some future attack, and the other was that Al Qaeda’s jihadists staged the incident to elicit precisely the international outrage directed at Assad as has occurred.

Gordon and Barnard also could be wrong about Assad being the only one with a motive to deploy poison gas. Since Assad’s forces have gained a decisive upper-hand over the rebels, why would he risk stirring up international outrage at this juncture? On the other hand, the desperate rebels might view the horrific scenes from the chemical-weapons deployment as a last-minute game-changer.

Pressure to Prejudge

None of this means that Assad’s forces are innocent, but a serious investigation ascertains the facts and then reaches a conclusion, not the other way around.

However, to suggest these other possibilities will, I suppose, draw the usual accusations about “Assad apologist,” but refusing to prejudge an investigation is what journalism is supposed to be about.

The Times, however, apparently has no concern anymore for letting the facts be assembled and then letting them speak for themselves. The Times weighed in on Wednesday with an editorial entitled “A New Level of Depravity From Mr. Assad.”

Another problem with the behavior of the Times and the mainstream media is that by jumping to a conclusion they pressure other important people to join in the condemnations and that, in turn, can prejudice the investigation while also generating a dangerous momentum toward war.

Once the political leadership pronounces judgment, it becomes career-threatening for lower-level officials to disagree with those conclusions. We’ve seen that already with how United Nations investigators accepted rebel claims about the Syrian government’s use of chlorine gas, a set of accusations that the Times and other media now report simply as flat-fact.

Yet, the claims about the Syrian military mixing in canisters of chlorine in supposed “barrel bombs” make little sense because chlorine deployed in that fashion is ineffective as a lethal weapon but it has become an important element of the rebels’ propaganda campaign.

U.N. investigators, who were under intense pressure from the United States and Western nations to give them something to use against Assad, did support rebel claims about the government using chlorine in a couple of cases, but the investigators also received testimony from residents in one area who described the staging of a chlorine attack for propaganda purposes.

One might have thought that the evidence of one staged attack would have increased skepticism about the other incidents, but the U.N. investigators apparently understood what was good for their careers, so they endorsed a couple of other alleged cases despite their inability to conduct a field investigation. [See Consortiumnews.com’s UN Team Heard Claims of Staged Chemical Attacks.”]

Now, that dubious U.N. report is being leveraged into this new incident, one opportunistic finding used to justify another. But the pressing question now is: 

Have the American people come to understand enough about “psychological operations” and “strategic communicationsthat they will finally show the skepticism that no longer exists in the major U.S. news media?"

.................................................
......................................

Added: Top EU official got global media propaganda ball rolling:

"The immediate accusation from a high ranking EU official serves a dangerous precedent where public outcry can be made even before the truth surrounding the tragedy can emerge."

4/4/17, "Jumping to conclusions; something is not adding up in Idlib chemical weapons attack," Al Masdar News, Paul Antonopoulos, Beirut, Lebanon, 4:47pm

"At least 58 people were killed in a horrific gas attack in the Idlib Governorate this morning. However, even before investigations could be conducted and for evidence to emerge, Federica Mogherini, the Italian politician High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, condemned the Syrian government stating that the “Assad regime bears responsibility for ‘awful’ Syria ‘chemical’ attack.”

The immediate accusation from a high ranking EU official serves a dangerous precedent where public outcry can be made even before the truth surrounding
the tragedy can emerge. 

Israeli President, Benjamin Netanyahu, joined in on the condemnation, as did Amnesty International.

Merely hours after the alleged chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikhun, supposedly by the Syrian government, holes are beginning to emerge from opposition sources, discrediting the Al-Qaeda affiliated White Helmets claims.

4/4/17, Syria, Al Masdar News


 














For one, seen in the above picture, the White Helmets are handling the corpses of people without sufficient safety gear, most particularly with the masks mostly used, as well as no gloves. Although this may seem insignificant, understanding the nature of sarin gas that the opposition claim was used, only opens questions.

Within seconds of exposure to sarin, the affects of the gas begins to target the muscle and nervous system. There is an almost immediate release of the bowels and the bladder, and vomiting is induced. When sarin is used in a concentrated area, it has the likelihood of killing thousands of people. Yet, such a dangerous gas, and the White Helmets are treating bodies with little concern to their exposed skin. This has to raise questions.

It also raises the question why a “doctor” in a hospital full of victims of sarin gas has the time to tweet and make video calls. This will probably be dismissed and forgotten however.

@maytham956 Hmm…'Patients are flooding in' YET this 'doctor' (seems the main source of 'gas attack') has time to film, tweet and videocalls…#Syria pic.twitter.com/SfLOfjE2pG
It is known that about 250 people from Majdal and Khattab were kidnapped by Al-Qaeda terrorists last week. Local sources have claimed that many of those dead from the chemical weapons were those from Majdal and Khattab."...


 image above from Al Masdar News





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Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Deep State skates: No charges will be filed against Richmond Federal Reserve Pres. Jeffrey Lacker who leaked private information to financial publisher in 2012 then lied by not disclosing his actions during an internal review. Now says he's resigning-CNBC

4/4/17, "Richmond Fed President Lacker says he was involved with Medley leak, announces immediate resignation," CNBC, Jeff Cox

"Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker announced his immediate resignation Tuesday, admitting that he discussed sensitive information with an analyst regarding the Fed's plans for economic stimulus

Lacker, 61, became president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond on Aug. 1, 2004. He is a member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. CNBC has learned that the resignation was negotiated with law enforcement officials. Lacker's attorney told CNBC no charges will be filed.... 

In his letter of resignation, Lacker admitted to speaking to an analyst at Medley Global Advisors regarding the September 2012 Fed meeting. Medley publishes analysis for hedge funds and asset managers and is owned by the Financial Times. Lacker said his actions violated Fed communications policies that prohibit "providing any profit-making person or organization with a prestige advantage over its competitors."

Lacker said he was asked by an analyst about an "important nonpublic detail" regarding the Federal Open Market Committee's policy options. 

"Due to the highly confidential and sensitive nature of this information, I should have declined to comment and perhaps have ended the phone call," Lacker said....

In addition, Lacker said he was obligated to disclose that the analyst had confidential information, which he did not do.

Medley ultimately told clients in October 2012 that the Fed would initiate another leg of its monthly bond-buying program in December. The author of the note was Regina Schleiger, who added in the note that Fed members had been up after midnight preparing for the meeting, according to the New York Times....

The Fed was criticized for not referring the leak to the Securities and Exchange Commission or the FBI. Instead, Fed General Counsel Scott Alvarez lead a Fed probe into the matter from October 2012 until March of 2013.

Lacker said he further did not disclose during an internal review into the matter that the analyst had confidential information. He never revealed the information until an April 15 [2012?] interview with multiple federal authorities including the FBI....

The Fed also released a statement saying, it "is committed to maintaining the security of confidential FOMC information. We cooperated fully with the independent law enforcement investigation into an unauthorized disclosure in 2012. We appreciate the diligent efforts made to bring this matter to its conclusion.""

----------------------

Comment: "The Fed was criticized for not referring the leak to the Securities and Exchange Commission or the FBI." The Fed "was criticized" by whom? Why is this sentence written passively? We all know laws don't effect the Deep State, so criticism certainly doesn't. Nevertheless, if the CNBC reporter knows "the Fed was criticized," why didn't he allow the peasants to know who did the criticizing? 








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Angry NY Times says that despite lack of evidence on core claim that Russia gave emails to WikiLeaks, the public must cease debate and agree with version of events NY Times wishes were true-Robert Parry, Consortium News, 4/4/17. (NY Times demands of 'no debate' equate to Soviet style thought police)

"There is something scary when the mainstream media, which has such a checkered history of misreporting the truth, asserts that it is the one that gets to decide what the truth is."

4/4/17, "Mainstream Media as Arbiters of Truth," Robert Parry, Consortium News

"An angry mainstream U.S. media is shaking its fist at anyone who won’t clamber onboard the Russia-gate groupthink bandwagon, reports Robert Parry." 

"The mainstream U.S. media is never more unctuous and unprofessional as when it asserts that it alone must be the arbiter of what is true and what is not, regardless of what the evidence shows or doesn’t show.

For instance, New York Times columnist Charles W. Blow declared on Monday that the public can longer debate whether Russia leaked to WikiLeaks the emails from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta despite the failure of the U.S. government or private researchers to present evidence that establishes that claim as fact.

Blow acknowledged that “We are still not conclusively able to connect the dots on the question of whether there was any coordination or collusion between members of Donald Trump’s campaign and the Russians…but those dots do continue to multiply at an alarming rate.”

But Blow also asserted that “It is absolutely clear that the Russians did interfere in our election. This is not a debatable issue. This is not fake news. This is not a witch hunt. This happened.”

Blow chastised people who still wanted evidence of this now non-debatable issue, seeing them at fault “because this fact [of the Russian meddling] keeps getting obscured in the subterfuge of deflection, misdirection and ideological finger-pointing about what has yet to be proven.”

So, if you insist on asking for proof of the core allegation in Russia-gate, you are guilty of “subterfuge…, misdirection and ideological finger-pointing. 

And if that indictment doesn’t quiet you up, there’s the column by The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne Jr. who explains that the real victims in Russia-gate are the accusers who have promoted this guilt-by-association scandal that has impugned the integrity of a growing number of Americans who either talked to Russians or who expressed doubts about the investigation....

Dionne suggests that people who question the credibility of the Russia-gate allegations are somehow un-American by favoring the injection of “calumny and falsehood into the American political bloodstream.” But that mainstream hostility toward skepticism has been at the heart of the Russia-bashing campaign that we have witnessed for the past several years.

And, that campaign indeed has been replete with McCarthyism. You even have The Washington Post promoting a blacklist of 200 Internet news sites (including Consortiumnews.com and other prominent independent-minded outlets) as guilty of “Russian propaganda” for reporting skeptically on some State Department claims about the New Cold War."...





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Sunday, April 2, 2017

Almost one in four 2012 Obama white working-class voters defected from the Democrats in 2016. This data has only recently become available-NY Times, 3/28/17. Note to NY Times: Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania is "in the heart of the anthracite coal region of Pennsylvania"

NY Times' detailed analysis of why Schuylkill County, Pa. went so strongly for Trump in Nov. 2016 doesn't mention that: "Schuylkill County is located in the heart of the anthracite coal region of Pennsylvania." Subhead below, "The Trump-Obama Vote"

3/28/17, "A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat," NY Times, Nate Cohn 

"In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

This analysis compares official voter files — data not available until months after the election — with The Upshot’s pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns evident in these states are representative of broader trends throughout the battleground states and nationwide. 

The turnout was slightly and consistently more favorable for Mr. Trump across all three states. But the turnout edge was small; in one of the closest elections in American history, it might not have represented his margin of victory. 

A More Favorable Electorate for Trump

In general, white and Hispanic voters roughly matched expectations of voter share or made up a slightly larger share of the electorate than expected, while black voters made up a smaller share....

This was mainly a result of higher white and Hispanic turnout; black turnout was roughly in line with our pre-election expectations. On average, white and Hispanic turnout was 4 percent higher than we expected, while black turnout was 1 percent lower than expected.

Whether black turnout was “disappointing” or “poor” is a matter of perspective. It was consistent with our pre-election models, but it was significantly lower than it was four or eight years ago, when Mr. Obama galvanized record black turnout.

Our pre-election estimates did not anticipate that black turnout would stay at such elevated levels, since African-Americans still had a weaker track record of voting in midterm and primary elections when President Obama was not on the ballot.

Ultimately, black turnout was roughly as we expected it. It looks as if black turnout was weak mostly in comparison with the stronger turnout among white and Hispanic voters.


This was part of a broader national pattern. Mr. Trump’s turnout edge was nonexistent or reversed in states with a large Hispanic population and a small black population, like Arizona. His turnout advantage was largest in states with a large black population and few Hispanic voters, like North Carolina.

What was consistent across most states, however, was higher-than-expected white turnout.

The increase in white turnout was broad, including among young voters, Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated voters, urban, rural, and the likeliest supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. The greatest increases were among young and unaffiliated white voters.

For this reason alone, it’s hard to argue that turnout was responsible for the preponderance of Mr. Trump’s gains among white voters. The turnout among young and white Democratic voters was quite strong.

But the turnout was generally stronger among the likeliest white Trump supporters than among the likeliest white Clinton supporters.

Over all, the turnout among white voters with a greater than 80 percent chance of supporting Mr. Trump was 7 percent higher than expected, while the turnout was 4 percent higher among white voters with greater than an 80 percent chance of supporting Mrs. Clinton.

The stronger Republican turnout among white voters narrowed the Democratic registration edge below pre-election expectations in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Only a Modest Effect

So how much did turnout contribute to Mr. Trump’s victory? As the party registration numbers and turnout figures by race imply, just a bit. But Mr. Trump won the election by just a bit — by only 0.7 percentage points in Pennsylvania, for example.

We estimated the presidential vote of every registered voter, based on our pre-election polls, voter file data and the results of every precinct. With these individual-level estimates of vote choice, it’s easy to assess how the election might have gone differently with a different electorate.

These estimates suggest that turnout improved Mr. Trump’s standing by a modest margin compared with pre-election expectations. If the turnout had gone exactly as we thought it would, the election would have been extremely close. But by this measure, Mrs. Clinton still would have lost both Florida and Pennsylvania albeit very narrowly.

It’s important to note that this is just one analysis, based on one set of data. Over the coming months or years, other analysts may conclude that the effect of turnout was larger or smaller than our estimates suggest. Their conclusions could differ if, for instance, their pre-election models showed a different electorate (say, they expected another big 2012-like turnout among black voters), or if their polling data shows that the people who voted were more or less supportive of Mr. Trump compared with those who stayed home. 

Even so, it would surprise me if other analysts reach a fundamentally different conclusion, based on interviews with pollsters and data analysts from both parties. In such a high-turnout election, it’s difficult for the voting electorate to be vastly different than expected.

For comparison, consider just how much worse Mrs. Clinton would have done with the 2014 electorate. Young, nonwhite and Democratic voters did not turn out in large numbers that year, and Mrs. Clinton would have probably lost Florida and Pennsylvania by a wide margin. Her losses would have been smaller in North Carolina, perhaps because the state had such a competitive Senate race in 2014.

Based on these data, Democrats are right to blame many of their midterm election losses on weak turnout. They’re on far shakier ground if they complain about the turnout last November. 

This doesn’t mean that Democrats can’t improve on turnout. If the turnout had been as good for Mrs. Clinton as it was for Mr. Trump, she would have won by our analysis. But even then, she would have only scratched by.

The Trump-Obama Vote 

If turnout played only a modest role in Mr. Trump’s victory, then the big driver of his gains was persuasion: He flipped millions of white working-class Obama supporters to his side. 

The voter file data makes it impossible to avoid this conclusion. It’s not just that the electorate looks far too Democratic. In many cases, turnout cannot explain Mrs. Clinton’s losses. 

Take Schuylkill County, Pa., the county where Mr. Trump made his biggest gains in Pennsylvania. He won, 69 percent to 26 percent, compared with Mitt Romney’s 56-42 victory. Mrs. Clinton’s vote tally fell by 7,776 compared with Mr. Obama’s 2012 result, even though the overall turnout was up.

Did 8,000 of Mr. Obama’s supporters stay home? No. There were 5,995 registered voters who voted in 2012, remain registered in Schuylkill County, and stayed home in 2016.

And there’s no way these 2016 drop-off voters were all Obama supporters. There were 2,680 registered Democrats, 2,629 registered Republicans and 686 who were unaffiliated or registered with a different party. This is a place where registered Democrats often vote Republican in presidential elections, so Mr. Obama’s standing among these voters was most likely even lower."...

[Ed. note: Good grief. Big miss, NY Times analysis of Schuylkill County, Pa. fails to mention that: "Schuylkill County is located in the heart of the anthracite coal region of Pennsylvania."]

(continuing): "Were they mostly supporters of Bernie Sanders? Unlikely: He was popular among the young, but 67 percent of the 2016 drop-off voters were over age 45, and 35 percent were over age 65. Just 5 percent voted in the Democratic primary in 2016, and 7 percent voted in the Republican primary.

Is it possible that the registered Democrats who turned out were Trump supporters, and that the Democrats who stayed home were likelier to be supporters of Mrs. Clinton? Perhaps, but our polling suggests the opposite. In our pre-election Upshot/Siena polls, voters were likelier than nonvoters to support their party’s nominee. 

Survey data, along with countless journalistic accounts, also suggest that voters switched in huge numbers. 

Throughout the campaign, polls of registered voters — which are not subject to changes in turnout — showed Mrs. Clinton faring much worse than Mr. Obama among white working-class voters."... 

[Ed. note: This being the case, why wasn't it urgently addressed and treated as big news during the campaigns? Hillary could've adjusted her campaign accordingly.] 

(continuing): "The postelection survey data tells a similar story: Mrs. Clinton won Mr. Obama’s white-working class supporters by a margin of only 78 percent to 18 percent against Mr. Trump, according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. 

In the Midwestern battleground states and Pennsylvania, Mrs. Clinton had an advantage of 76 percent to 20 percent among white working-class Obama voters.


The survey data isn’t perfect. It relies on voters’ accurate recall of their 2012 vote, and that type of recall is often biased toward the winner. Indeed, the C.C.E.S. found that Mr. Obama had 54 percent of support among 2012 voters, compared with his actual 51 percent finish.


But the data all points in the same direction: Shifts in turnout were not the dominant factor in Mr. Trump’s success among white working-class voters." above maps from wikipedia, which states: Schuylkill County, Pa. "is located in the heart of the anthracite Coal Region of Eastern Pennsylvania."

Comment: NY Times does a detailed analysis above wondering why Schuylkill County, Pa. went so strongly for Trump. The Times fails to mention that "Schuylkill County is located in the heart of the anthracite coal region of Pennsylvania."
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NY Times, related: 

"How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for Trump,"

How Did Donald Trump Win Over So Many Obama Voters?" Nov. 14, 2016

"Putting the Polling Miss of the 2016 Election in Perspective," NY Times

It was the biggest polling miss in a presidential election in decades. Yet in many ways, it wasn't wholly out of the ordinary. 

Over all, the national polls missed the result by only a few points: Hillary Clinton is on track to win the popular vote by around 1.5 percentage points, not especially far from her roughly four-point lead in an average of national polls. 

But the state polls were a different story. They systematically underestimated Donald J. Trump's standing in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. His strength there was enough to make him the president. 

Few saw it coming. Mrs. Clinton led in nearly every high-quality survey of Minnesota, Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. It was her modest but consistent edge in those states and others that led analysts to project that she had an excellent chance at victory. This includes our poll-based forecast, which gave Mrs. Clinton an 85 percent chance to win, alongside those from other organizations, which put Mrs. Clinton's chances at between 71 percent at FiveThirtyEight and greater than 99 percent at the Princeton Election Consortium. 

Her campaign, with its own polling, concluded the same thing. She barely even campaigned in Maine, Wisconsin or Minnesota, and visited Michigan only in the last week of the race.

Yet in the end, her polling lead proved illusory. 

All of these states have something in common: They have a large number of white voters without a college degree. Mr. Trump also outperformed the polls in other mostly white and rural states, whether Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri or Indiana. 

The states with a large number of white working-class voters tend to be somewhat less populous than the more diverse and well-educated states along the coasts. A result is that the state polling averages were off by more than usual, even though the national numbers weren’t far off. 

State Polling Errors in 2016 Were the Largest in Decades"...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/13/upshot/putting-the-polling-miss-of-2016-in-perspective.html?action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

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Among Free Republic comments:

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"Donald Trump...had a brand independent of that of the Republican party."

"To: Angels27

I would summarize the results this way: Trump overperformed generic Republican, Hillary underperformed generic Democrat.

Unfortunately a lot of those in positions of power seem to be in denial of those facts. Then there are those who are uninterested in why. Hillary was a terrible candidate, and at least some senior Dems seem to be willing to ask how they can do better. Too many on the Republican side seem to be oblivious that Trump did better than generic Republican, and what the implications of that are. I am dubious that any other candidate in the primaries could have done better than Donald Trump, mostly because he had a brand independent of that of the Republican party.

10 posted on 4/1/2017, 6:50:58 PM by Fraxinus"

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3540177/posts
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Referenced by:

3/29/17, "Shift in White Working Class Voters, Not Turnout, Helped Lead Trump to Victory," 270ToWin.com

"The New York Times Upshot reports that nearly one in four white, working class voters who supported President Obama's reelection in 2012 abandoned the Democratic party in the 2016 presidential election, selecting either Donald Trump or a third-party candidate. It is this shift, not a major change in expected turnout, that propelled Mr. Trump to victory in the 2016 presidential election.

The Upshot reached this conclusion by reviewing actual voter files, comparing those to The Upshot's pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns in these three states are representative of broader trends throughout the nation, according to the analysis."

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Saturday, April 1, 2017

Catholic diocese in Montana becomes 17th in US to file for bankruptcy due to expenses of defending child sexual abuse claims. 'Filing for bankruptcy offers diocese immediate protection from all pending and future lawsuits, giving it breathing room to continue its ministry'-Wall St. Journal

16 other US Catholic Dioceses and Religious Orders That Have Filed for Bankruptcy Protection due to expenses incurred defending child sexual abuse claims since 2004

3/31/17, "Montana Diocese Seeks Chapter 11 Protection to Address Abuse Claims," Wall St. Journal, Tom Corrigan (subscrip)

"Great Falls-Billing diocese becomes 17th U.S. diocese or religious order to seek bankruptcy-court protection while facing litigation over sexual-abuse allegations."

"The Roman Catholic Diocese of Great Falls-Billings, Mont., filed for bankruptcy protection Friday, becoming the 17th in a growing number of troubled Catholic dioceses and religious orders to turn to chapter 11.

The diocese’s bankruptcy filing comes in the face of 72 lawsuits claiming child sexual abuse by priests and other diocesan staff. More claims may be filed as the case goes through the bankruptcy process.

Great Falls-Billings Bishop Michael Warfel told The Wall Street Journal he has already met with several sexual abuse victims and is open to meeting with all of them.

“A lot of people have carried wounds for many years, and I am very sensitive to that,” he said Friday. “It’s really important in the healing process for victims to meet with the bishop and the diocese, and I encourage it.”

All diocesan bankruptcies to date—from the Archdiocese of Portland, Ore., in 2004 to the Diocese of New Ulm, Minn., which filed in March—have been driven by mounting liabilities tied to the past sexual abuse of minors. 

Filing for bankruptcy offers the diocese immediate protection from all pending and future lawsuits, giving it breathing room to continue its ministry while it finalizes a plan to compensate victims.

“On behalf of the entire Diocese of Great Falls-Billings, I express my profound sorrow and sincere apologies to anyone who was abused by a priest, a sister or a lay Church worker,” the bishop said in a statement Friday. “No child should experience harm from anyone who serves the Church.”

Bishop Warfel added that no priests from his diocese facing credible accusations of abuse are in active ministry and that most are deceased. The vast majority of abuse allegations involving the Catholic Church in the U.S. occurred decades ago.

The Diocese of Great Falls-Billings covers nearly two thirds of the state of Montana, but serves a relatively small population. 

According to its website, the diocese has about 40,000 parishioners, 42 active priests, 50 parishes and 50 missions.

In bankruptcy court papers, the diocese listed total assets of about $21 million. The diocese’s parishes aren’t separately incorporated, and it isn’t clear how much, if any, of their assets will be included in a future bankruptcy settlement.

The Great Falls-Billings diocese enters bankruptcy with a negotiated agreement with both victims plaintiffs and its insurance carriers, which aims to help speed up the chapter 11 case. The agreement, reached with the help of a mediator, provides a road map intended to avoid legal obstacles at the outset of the case, according to Ford Elsaesser, a lawyer for the diocese.

Mr. Elsaesser says he expects the case to follow in the footsteps of the Diocese of Helena, Mont., a neighboring diocese that sought bankruptcy protection in 2014.

The Diocese of Helena eventually reached a $21 million settlement with about 380 victims, largely through out-of-court negotiations. The diocese spent just over a year in chapter 11 but less than five hours in court, according to Mr. Elsaesser, who also represented the Helena diocese.

Other U.S. diocesan bankruptcies, however, have been protracted and hard-fought, with many stretching out over several years.

The Archdiocese of Milwaukee’s bankruptcy lasted nearly five years, and a dispute over access to assets reached the U.S. Supreme Court before it was settled. And the Archdiocese of St. Paul and Minneapolis, now in its third year of chapter 11, has been unable to reconcile with victims and the two sides are moving forward with competing—and starkly different—compensation plans.

Not everyone agrees that bankruptcy is the best forum for handling sensitive allegations of past sexual abuse. Critics say the process can deprive victims of the opportunity to present their stories to a jury and can force other victims to come forward before they are ready. Once a bankruptcy comes to a close, victims whose claims stem from abuse that occurred prior to the bankruptcy are typically barred from taking their allegations to court.

“While we had hoped to obtain justice for our clients at trial, we are hopeful that the diocese’s bankruptcy will result in nonmonetary terms for the protection of children and monetary recognition of the tragedies endured by victims,” Leander James, an attorney for a group of victims, said in a statement Friday."

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Added:

16 other US Catholic organizations that have filed for bankruptcy since 2004 due to expenses, 14 dioceses plus two Catholic groups, Oregon Province of the Jesuits (2/17/09), Congregation of the Christian Brothers (4/28/11): 

"Dioceses and Religious Orders That Have Filed for Bankruptcy Protection," Bankruptcy Protection in the Abuse Crisis, bishopaccountability.org 

 1. Archdiocese of Portland OR (filed 7/6/04)
 2. Diocese of Tucson AZ (9/20/04)
 3. Diocese of Spokane WA (12/6/04)
 4. Diocese of Davenport IA (10/10/06)
 5. Diocese of San Diego CA (2/27/07)
 6. Diocese of Fairbanks AK (3/1/08)
 a. Oregon Province of the Jesuits (2/17/09)
 7. Diocese of Wilmington DE and MD (10/18/09)
 8. Archdiocese of Milwaukee WI (1/4/11)
 b. Congregation of the Christian Brothers (4/28/11)
 9. Diocese of Gallup NM (11/12/13)
10. Diocese of Stockton CA (1/15/14)
11. Diocese of Helena MT (1/31/14)
12. Archdiocese of St. Paul and Minneapolis MN (1/16/15)

13. Archdiocese of Milwaukee a proposed settlement was announced (8/4/15)
14. Diocese of Duluth MN (12/7/15) 







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