News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Cold temperature record in Chicago as early snow arrives-Chicago Tribune

Winds blamed for early cold. Winds also cited in peer reviewed study as major cause of past 112 years of temperature changes on US west coast.

10/4/14, "Light snow sweeps in, third earliest on record," Chicago Tribune

"Light snow followed a cold front into the Chicago area Saturday morning, the third earliest we've seen a trace of the stuff dating back to 1881.

A band of rain and snow started spreading across northern Illinois shortly before 7 a.m., according to the National Weather Service. 

For Chicago, it's the third earliest snow on record.  The earliest traces of snow dating back to 1881 are  

Sept. 25, 1928 and Sept. 25, 1944. 

Rockford recorded it second earliest snow this morning, shortly before 5 a.m. It just missed the record set on Oct. 3, 1951. 

The flurries were swept into the Chicago area by high, cold winds that kept temperatures in the 40s Saturday and were expected to set records for the coldest high for this date.  The record is a high of just 48 in 1935; the predicted high for Saturday is 47.

This is the chilliest weekend in the six months, with readings more typical of Thanksgiving.  The temperatures will be about 20 degrees below normal and about 30 degrees colder than a week ago, according to WGN-TV meteorologist Tom Skilling.

Warmer weather and some sun is expected for Sunday, with highs expected in the mid 50s. Temperatures are forecasted to drop into the mid 40s Sunday night with a 30 percent chance of rain."

Temperature record of 47 degrees:

10/5/14, "Cold Temps Set Record as Snow Arrives in Chicago,"

"The city set a temperature record with O'Hare Airport recording a high of 47 degrees, marking the lowest maximum high temperature in 79 years, the NWS reported. The previous record, set on October 4, 1935, was 48 degrees."...


Just like last winter:

10/3/14, "Snow in the forecast? Blame Canada!" Chicago Tribune, Rex Huppke  
"You’d think we would have learned our lesson last winter, when all manner of maple-tinged arctic temperatures consumed our fine region and forced us to wear stupid furry hats."...


9/14 peer reviewed PNAS study cites winds--not humans--as chief cause of US west coast temperature changes over past 112 years:


"These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability 

can also extend to century time scales."

Seattle Times article cites above PNAS study:
9/22/14, "Study says natural factors, not humans, behind West Coast warming," Seattle Times, Craig Welch

"The rise in temperatures along the West Coast over the past century [of between .5 to 1C] is almost entirely due to natural forces — not human emissions of greenhouse gases, according to a major new study...."

"It has been a subject of debate for years: How much has global warming contributed to a documented rise in temperatures along the West Coast?

A new study published Monday in a major research journal suggests the answer thus far, particularly in the Northwest, is: hardly any....

And the researchers said they could find no evidence that those weather patterns were being influenced by human greenhouse-gas emissions.

“It’s a simple story, but the results are very surprising: We do not see a human hand in the warming of the West Coast,” said co-author Nate Mantua, now with NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center. That is taking people by surprise, and may generate some blowback.

Climate scientists for years have acknowledged that Pacific Northwest weather can vary naturally year to year — or even decade to decade. But many have argued that human burning of fossil fuels is already a huge factor driving up regional temperatures.

But the new research by Mantua and lead author Jim Johnstone, formerly with the UW’s Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, suggests that natural variation in weather accounts for the vast majority of regional temperature increases for the last 113 years.

The study found wind responsible for more than 80 percent of the warming from Northern California to the Northwest.

In Southern California, winds accounted for about 60 percent.

It was a big eye-opener,Johnstone said. “The winds have changed in a manner that explains virtually all of the coastal ocean warming. The winds appear to decide it all.”"...


LA Times article also cites above PNAS study. Those who don't agree with this peer reviewed study are "climate science deniers:"

9/22/14, "West Coast warming linked to naturally occurring changes," LA Times, Tony Barboza

"Naturally occurring changes in winds, not human-caused climate change, are responsible for most of the warming on land and in the sea along the West Coast of North America over the last century, a study has found.

The analysis challenges assumptions that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been a significant driver of the increase in temperatures observed over many decades in the ocean and along the coastline from Alaska to California.

Changes in ocean circulation as a result of weaker winds were the main cause of about 1 degree Fahrenheit (about .55C) of warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean and nearby coastal land between 1900 and 2012, according to the analysis of ocean and air temperatures over that time. The study, conducted by researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Washington, was published Monday by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Natural, wind-driven climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean, such as El NiƱo and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are already known to exert a powerful influence on sea and land temperatures over years and even decades.

This latest research shows that similar changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation  

can drive trends that last a century or longer, overshadowing the effects of human-generated increase in greenhouse gases, the

study's authors said....

If global warming had been the most powerful influence on land and sea temperatures, those temperatures would have been different, the study's authors said. Most of the warming in the region occurred before 1940, when greenhouse gas concentrations were lower and winds were weaker, the study found. In contrast, winds have strengthened since 1980 and coastal ocean cooled, even as the rise in greenhouse gases has accelerated."...


"A 1 Celsius change is a change of 1.8 Fahrenheit while a 1 Fahrenheit change translates to a change of 0.55 Celsius." 



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