News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Consequences of future hurricanes are reduced because US fuel supplies are no longer centered in offshore locations. 2014 expectations are for another below-normal hurricane season-UPI

6/4/14, "Shale offsets many U.S. hurricane issues,", Daniel J. Graeber. "Only one or two major storms expected this year."

"Strong growth in onshore U.S. oil and gas production means fewer problems from hurricanes, the analytical arm of the U.S. Energy Department said Wednesday.

Sunday marked the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. As of Wednesday, there are no cyclones reported in the Atlantic Ocean, though Tropical Storm Boris is headed north from the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at a rate of 5 miles per hour.

Though offshore oil and gas installations may be shut in by any major storm in the Atlantic, EIA said inland production could make up for any shortfall.

"The effect of hurricanes on oil and natural gas production has been reduced in part by an increasing portion of U.S. production coming from inland basins such as the Bakken Shale play in North Dakota, the Williston Basin in Montana, and the Marcellus Shale play in the Appalachian Basin," it said Wednesday.

Oil and gas production rates in the United States are setting records because of shale developments.

More than half of the daily production from the Gulf of Mexico was shut down when Hurricane Katrina struck the Louisiana coast in 2005. Last year, Tropical Storm Andrea was the only named storm to make landfall and it didn't cause any disruptions to crude oil or natural gas production, EIA said."


5/18/14, "Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014: Two US Landfalls Predicted; East Coast at Risk," AccuWeather, Kristen Rodman

"Following a season with the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to follow suit as a below-normal hurricane season.

With roughly 10 named tropical storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes predicted for the Atlantic Basin this season,'s long-range forecasting team anticipates two storms, either tropical storms or hurricanes, to make landfall in the United States.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Key Points:

1. is predicting a below-normal hurricane season.
2. Tropical development this season may be altered by the onset of El Niño in late summer or fall.
3. Areas from the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico up through the East Coast will be most vulnerable for impacts from a tropical system.

The onset of El Niño, a short-term phenomenon associated with above-normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, may alter weather patterns across the globe. At some point this summer, El Niño will likely increase wind shear across portions of the Atlantic basin and thus suppress the development of tropical storms this season.

"If we have a robust El Niño develop, then the numbers will be much lower and this could be one of the least active years in recent memory," Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.

If the 2014 season falls short of normal, it would only be the fourth below-normal season in 20 years, according to NOAA.

The official start of hurricane season, June 1, 2014, could be ushered in by one or two storms in June or July, according to Kottlowski.

However, most storms and the best potential for landfall will be on the horizon for the basin during the heart of hurricane season, which occurs later in the summer and into fall, in the months of August, September and October.

This summer, the areas to watch closely for potential impact will be those from eastern Louisiana, east through Florida and up through the Carolina and Virginia coasts, including the cities of New Orleans, Tampa, Miami, Key West, Charleston and Norfolk.

However, other areas along the coastline could still be hit as early predictions for pathways and intensity of storms and hurricanes weeks ahead of time are extremely difficult, according to Kottlowski."...



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