8/30/10, PNAS.org, “Climate not to blame for African civil wars,” Halvard Buhaug
11/9/12, “Climate Change Report Outlines Perils for U.S. Military,“ NY Times, John M. Broder
“Climate change is accelerating, and it will place unparalleled strains on American military and intelligence agencies in coming years by causing ever more disruptive events around the globe, the nation’s top scientific research group said in a report issued Friday.
The group, the National Research Council, says in a study commissioned by the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies that clusters of apparently unrelated events exacerbated by a warming climate will create more frequent but unpredictable crises in water supplies, food markets, energy supply chains and public health systems….
The report cites the simultaneous heat wave in Russia and floods in Pakistan in the summer of 2010 as disparate but linked climate-related events that taxed those societies.”…via Tom Nelson
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The 2010 Russian fires and Pakistan floods have both been addressed by scientists and both judged to be due to natural causes. On the Russian fires following are two NOAA reports, on the Pakistan floods, 3 sources, one a UN IPCC reviewer, one the AGU, and one on government protected timber mafia in Pakistan.
First the Russian fires:
Peer reviewed science states 2010 Russian fires were caused by nature not humans:
3/19/11 NOAA GRL peer reviewed study says 2010 Russian fires were not caused by man but were due to natural causes:
“Ongoing Scientific Assessment of the 2010 Western Russia Heatwave”
3/19/11, “Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?”
Dole, R. M. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, J. Eischeid, P. Pegion, T. Zhang, X. Quan, T. Xu, and D. Murray; Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582
Abstract
“The 2010 summer heat wave in western Russia was extraordinary, with the region experiencing the warmest July since at least 1880 and numerous locations setting all-time maximum temperature records. This study explores whether early warning could have been provided through knowledge of natural and human-caused climate forcings. Model simulations and observational data are used to determine the impact of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice conditions and greenhouse gas concentrations.
Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave. They also provide evidence that such an intense event could be produced through natural variability alone.
Analysis of observations indicate that this heat wave was mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that produced and maintained a strong and long-lived blocking event, and that similar atmospheric patterns have occurred with prior heat waves in this region.
We conclude that the intense 2010 Russian heat wave was mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability. Slowly varying boundary conditions that could have provided predictability and the potential for early warning did not appear to play an appreciable role in this event.”
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Summary from NOAA on the Russian fires:
Sept. 3, 2010, “Ongoing Scientific Assessment of the 2010 Western Russia Heatwave,” NOAA
“The extreme surface warmth over western Russia during July and early August is mostly a product of the strong and persistent blocking high. Surface temperatures soared as a result of the combination of clear skies, sinking motion within the environment of the high pressure causing compressional heating of air, the lack of any temporary relief owing to the blocking of the typical cold fronts that cool the region intermittently in summer. Add to this scenario the cumulative effect of drought that began in early summer which caused soils to dry and plants to desiccate to wilting point , thereby causing additional surface warming via land feedbacks as the blocking condition persisted. These are all well-known and studied physical processes that have accompanied summertime blocking and heat waves in the past….
Blocks are not an uncommon occurrence over Eurasia in summer, with a episodes of July blocking in the region between 0-60ºE evident during the past half century (Figure 5). This region is vulnerable to episodes of blocking owing to physical factors related to the region’s location downstream of the Atlantic westerly jet....
Most of Russia did not contribute to the record global conditions during the first half of the year.”…
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Next, the Pakistan floods/monsoon:
3 sources state the 2010 Pakistan floods can’t be blamed on man made global warming.
First UN IPCC reviewer Madhav Khandekar states the rains “were well within natural variability of monsoonal climate over the Indian subcontinent.” “Madhav Khandekar is a former research scientist from Environment Canada and was an expert reviewer for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007 Climate Change Documents.”
Second, Pakistan’s illegal timber mafia’s practices (which are protected by Pakistani politicians and the Taliban) caused much of the flooding. Environmentalists had predicted such results from illegal logging.
Third, the American Geophysical Union states the flood was forecast 10 days in advance but this information wasn’t made public. Illegally stored logs destroyed dams and bridges. The government could have removed these. People could have been evacuated.
Bonus fourth article: Pakistan demands “global warming” reparations from “developed countries” (ie, the US taxpayer)
due to the floods. This is in essence what the NY Times advocates in repeating lies about the 2010 Pakistan floods.
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First article:
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“Madhav L. Khandekaran… was expert reviewer for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007 Climate Change Documents.” Roger Pielke, Sr. links to Khandekaran’s paper in the 2010 Pakistan floods:
9/29/10, “2010 Pakistan Floods: Climate Change Or Natural Variability?” by Madhav L Khandekar
“I have been alerted to an excellent article by Madhav L. Khandekar from the latest edition of the CMOS Bulletin(Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society). The article is titled
2010 Pakistan Floods: Climate Change Or Natural Variability?”
“His conclusion includes the text
“A rapid transition of the ENSO phase from El Niño to La Niña between spring and summer of 2010 appears to be the key element in triggering a vigorous monsoon of 2010 over the Indian subcontinent…….the 2010 Pakistan floods, although seemingly unprecedented, were well within natural variability of monsoonal climate over the Indian subcontinent.”
Read the full article here.”…
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Second article:
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Bridges and dams were broken by logs illegally stored in ravines by the timber mafia. The logs became dislodged in the storm and swept out bridges and dams. The original illegal felling of the trees additionally subjected the area to increased flooding and soil erosion. The timber mafia in Pakistan is protected by politicians and the Taliban.
8/5/10, “Pakistan’s floods are not just a natural disaster,” UK Guardian, K. Shamsie
“Environmentalists have long warned of the power of the illegal timber mafia and the susceptibility of deforested areas to flooding, landslides and soil erosion.”
“First came the Taliban. Then the army. And now the floods. The people of the Swat valley – synonymous with beauty and peace just a few years ago – have cause to wonder if they are the most benighted people in the world.
The oppressive and murderous rule of the Taliban, who had almost total control of the north Pakistan valley by the end of 2008, followed by the army’s retaliatory operation last year, which seemed to consider civilians entirely incidental to the matter of military strategy, forced 64% of the inhabitants of the Upper Swat region to join the numbers of internally displaced persons.
And then the rains came….
The truth is, the death toll could have been much lower, assistance much more quickly and efficiently at hand. Instead, report after report talks of the
- inadequacy of the state’s response to the crisis.
But it is not only the matter of response but also that of cause which implicates the state of Pakistan. In the last few years, environmental groups, activists and journalists have talked repeatedly of the power of the timber mafia, which has a particularly strong hold on the areas now affected by flooding.
One of the most powerful and ruthless organisations within Pakistan, the timber mafia engages in illegal logging, which is estimated to be worth billions of rupees each year – the group’s connection to politicians at the local and federal level has been commented on in the media for years.
The constant warnings about the timber mafia almost always include mention of the increased susceptibility of de-forested regions to flooding, landslides and soil erosion.
But, in the way that horror tends to pile on horror in Pakistan, not only has the flooding been intense in areas where the timber mafia is active but the felled trees,
- hidden in ravines prior to smuggling them onwards,
- swept away bridges and people and anything else in their path.
That the timber mafia reportedly gave active support to the Pakistan Taliban when they controlled Swat seems to have done nothing to diminish their influence with the state. Corruption transcends political difference. …Pakistan’s citizens, time and again, find it falls to them to fill in the vacuum where there should be a state."…
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Third article:
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American Geophysical Union says 2010 Pakistan floods and monsoon were predicted 10 days before they happened but the forecast was withheld from the public. The lead climate scientist on the AGU report says the floods themselves could have been minimized were this news acted on:
1/31/11, “Pakistan flood warning ‘not passed on’,” BBC
“A study has suggested that the effects of last year’s floods in Pakistan could have been less catastrophic if European weather forecasts had been shared with Pakistan.
The American Geophysical Union said the forecasts could have given up to
- 10 days’ advance warning of the floods.
- The monsoon floods affected 20 million people and one fifth of the country.
The American Geophysical Union said the information
- did not reach Pakistan because of a “lack of cooperation between the forecasting centre and Pakistan”.
“This disaster could have been minimised and even the flooding could have been minimised,” said Peter Webster, a professor of earth and atmospheric science at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and lead writer of the study.”…
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Russia is different from Pakistan. If you withhold flood forecasts, you get arrested:
7/22/12, “Officials in southern Russia held over floods,” BBC
“Russian police have arrested three officials in the southern Krymsk region accused of failing to warn residents of disastrous flooding earlier this month.”…
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Bonus fourth article:
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Pakistan’s Minister of Environment with the help of UNESCO says the floods were due to global warming, says ‘developed countries’ (ie the US taxpayer) must give him cash:
1/25/11, “Pakistan needs Rs 365bn annually to tackle climate change : Afridi,” Daily Times (Pakistan)
“Pakistan is the most vulnerable country due to climate change that needs 365 billion rupees annually to arrest its affects. He said developed countries should come forward and provide financial and technical assistance to Pakistan for this mission. He said that this planet is created for human being but man-made activities are destroying it. “…
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Added: PNAS 2010 study refuting 2009 thesis that ‘global warming causes civil war.’
8/30/10, PNAS.org, “Climate not to blame for African civil wars,” Halvard Buhaug1
Centre for the Study of Civil War, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), 0134 Oslo, Norway
Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved August 10, 2010 (received for review April 30, 2010)
“There are good reasons to be skeptical about such categorical
claims. First, the study is limited to major civil wars and fails to
distinguish between lesser war episodes (less than 1000 annual casualties) and peace. The stringent inclusion criterion excludes a number
of recent violent uprisings in the Sahel—the classic region of
claimed scarcity-induced conflicts—including in Chad, Niger,
Mali, and Senegal. It remains unclear whether the results hold
up if alternative and more inclusive definitions of conflict are
applied. Second, the Burke et al. (6) study applies an unconventional operationalization of the dependent variable, focusing on prevalence rather than outbreak of violence, yet counting only conflict years that caused a minimum of 1,000 direct casualties."...
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Refuting 2009 report:
9/6/10, “Climate shifts ‘not to blame’ for African civil wars,” BBC, Mark Kinver
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11/24/09, "Climate 'is a major cause' of conflict in Africa," BBC, Richard Black
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- Above picture ran 11/24/2009 in BBC article leading up to Copenhagen. This was supposed to create anti-American hatred and get money flowing. Not to poor people suffering, but to UN and World Bank cronies who would do the same thing with it they've done with other US taxpayer billions given to them.
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Politicians keep lying because US taxpayers respond positively to being lied to and robbed:
Added for reference: 8/3/10, “Pakistan president says US-led war against Taliban is being lost,” “Battle for Afghanistan hearts and minds ‘has failed’,” UK Guardian
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