7/15/2011, "UN Climate Body Struggling to Pinpoint Rising Sea Levels," Der Spiegel, Axel Bojanowski
"The United Nations' forecast of how quickly global sea levels will rise this century is vital in determining how much money might be needed to combat the phenomenon. But predictions by researchers
- vary wildly, and the attempt to find consensus has become fractious.
When the next report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is issued in two years, it will include a forecast for how high the world's oceans might rise by 2100. With 146 million people in the world currently living less than one meter above sea level, the forecast will be vital in determining how much money governments must spend on measures to protect people from
- the rising waters and to resettle those in the most acute danger.
The last IPCC report, which was issued in 2007, forecast an ocean level rise of up to 59 centimeters by the end of the century. Now, the UN experts must once again sift through hundreds of reports, and the haggling over their findings is not unlike the bargaining for the best price at the bazaar. On the one hand, researchers have published forecasts that are far higher than the result reported in the last IPCC report. On the other, sea level measurements have yet to prove any meaningful rise though there is agreement that they are, on global average, rising.
Outdoing each other's predictions
In recent days, the debate over the IPCC forecast has heated up. Some 4,000 experts gathered in Melbourne, Australia last week for a meeting of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). And it seems almost as though they are in competition to outdo one-another's predictions.
NASA climate researcher James Hansen, for example, warns in a paper published this month that sea levels could rise by five meters in the next 90 years -- nine times higher than the maximum cited in the last IPCC report. He insists that he has found indications that sea levels in the future could rise by as much as five centimeters per year.
Hansen, say some climatologists, is risking his reputation with such an extreme forecast. Three years ago, researchers found that a rise of over two meters per century is impossible because so much ice simply can't melt in such a short time. Furthermore, current measurements show a rise of just three millimeters per year.
An additional recent study, written by Jim Houston from the Engineer Research Center in Vicksburg, Mississippi and Bob Dean from the University of Florida in Gainsville for the Journal of Coastal Research, argues that sea levels have risen steadily for the last 100 years -- and that there has been no acceleration at all in recent years.
A reply was not long in coming. In the current issue of the Journal of Coastal Research, Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research argues that Houston and Dean only included sea level calculations beginning in the 1930s. He says that if one chooses a year from the previous century, an accelerated rise can be seen.
Fluctuation
"Rahmstorf is not alone in his belief that the sea level rise has accelerated. Data up until 1993, based on coastal measurements, show an annual rise of 1.7 millimeters. Since then, however, satellite measurements have indicated a rise of three millimeters per year.
But does that mean that water levels are rising faster? Not necessarily. Certainly the rate of increase has strengthened during the 20th century, said John Church of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. "Whether or not this is a further acceleration is not yet clear," said Church, who also leads the sea level working group at the IPCC.
The quality of the data is not enough to reach a clear conclusion, says Eduardo Zorita, from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Meterials and Coastal Research. In the last eight years, he says, the rise of the oceans has slowed -- and what the future may hold is uncertain.
While some researchers see an unusual acceleration over the last few decades, Simon Holgate, a sea level researcher with the National Oceanography Centre in Liverpool, does not. According to his study the rates of increase since 1993 have been nothing out of the ordinary. Indeed, says Guy Wöppelmann of the Université de La Rochelle in France, in the 20th century sea levels have risen with similar speed only to slow down again.
Still, studies have shown that the thick layer of ice on Greenland has begun melting faster. And that massive amount of water has to go somewhere. The 2007 IPCC report avoided the most pessimistic scenarios for the melting ice on Greenland, primarily because so little is known about the ice sheet there.
"Without a better understanding of how the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica will react to warming air and warming oceans, we simply cannot say" what the future might hold, says Josh Willis, an ocean researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory....
Data from earlier warm periods do not provide cause for optimism. A study published by a team led by Anton Eisenhauer at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences two years ago found that coral reefs that are six meters above sea level today were under water 125,000 years ago. Sea levels must have been much higher at the time. And the climate was much warmer than it is today. Eisenhauer believes that melting Greenland glaciers may have been to blame."...
- Ed. note: 9/11/11, "The last time the Arctic was uncontestably free of summertime ice was 125,000 years ago, at the height of the last major interglacial period, known as the Eemian."...
- The Arctic was ice free without a single automobile being on the planet. Proving again the fraud of diverting 'billions of tax dollars' to pay for "removing CO2" to help "sea levels."ed.
To what degree such studies might be accounted for in the new UN report is open to question. Their results could make for a much higher UN forecast when it comes to future ocean levels. And many researchers have their doubts. "The semi-empirical models have not been verified," says, for example, Neil White from CSIRO, adding it is unclear whether such comparisons reflect real occurences in nature. "In some circumstances," he adds, they "have been shown not to work."
Arriving at a forecast is made even more difficult by the fact that sea levels do not rise at the same rate across the globe. In some regions, it is rising at double the average," says Claus Böning from the Leibniz Institute. "Elsewhere, levels are even sinking, for example at some Pacific islands and in the Indian Ocean." Ocean currents are largely responsible for these differences, he and colleague Franziska Schwarzkopf recently reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters....
Given the large discrepancies in expert opinions it would appear that the 18 scientists currently working to arrive at a forecast have their work cut out for them. And unlike the glaciers on Greenland, they cannot work at a snail's pace. After all, one of the
- most important numbers in the next IPCC report is at stake."
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The world assumes scarce US tax dollars are attached to this multi-trillion dollar fraud with thousands of decision makers jetting to meetings and conventions all over the globe to chat. This country has been handed over like a piece of fish. Surrendered in a war without a shot being fired under the guise of 'climate.' ed.
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Reference:
12/8/10, Shakedown artists of Maldives and Tuvalu just trying to cash in
"Mohamed Nasheed as President of Maldives," My Voice Pakistan Forum
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12/8/10, "Cancun's Climate Crock," American Thinker, Brian Sussman
"And the submersion of Tuvalu and Maldives? Their surrounding waters show no measurable signs of rising. The problem is the islands of Maldives are relatively flat coral atolls. Since tourism was first introduced to the nation in 1972,
- ninety plush resorts have been built, with locally mined coral being the primary aggregate for construction.
- creating the impression that the islands are sinking.
- Tuvalu is a tropical island mess being
- run by slick politicians
- using global warming for a shakedown operation.
we believe that the major greenhouse polluters should pay for the impacts they are causing.""...
- The global whiners can continue to make all the wild pronouncements they wish, but the fact is that they're losing the debate."
- -----------------
"Of all the apocalyptic imagery summoned by global warming's proponents, the most compelling has been
- the threat of coastal devastation from rising sea levels. In his best-selling work "Earth in the Balance," Al Gore argued that the selfishness of Western industrialization would obliterate small, impoverished countries.
- Mr. Gore solemnly predicted that millions of poor inhabitants would be forced to flee their homelands in a desperate bid for survival - unless we adopt his political agenda. It just isn't so.
- Using aerial photographs taken as early as 1944, the areas were carefully mapped and compared with modern satellite images.
According to various studies, sea levels appear to have risen about 8 inches since the year 1860, but these Pacific islands continue to prosper nonetheless. This new study attributed size differences over time to the effect of ocean swells pounding and eroding windward shorelines. On leeward sides protected from the swells, coastlines grew.
- In other words, nature struck a near-perfect balance, wholly unaffected by the purported evils
- of America's internal-combustion engines.
This research was not conducted by scientists who disputed climate change, but even they noted the suspicious absence of verification for a key alarmist claim.
- "The lack of monitoring seems a gross oversight given the international concern over small island stability and pressing concerns of island communities to manage island landscapes," the report stated.
- it's time for the movement's high priest, Mr. Gore, to offer a refund to those from his flock who bought his work of fiction."
- Tuvalu had increased due to a typhoon in 1972."...
Maldives has no income tax.
8/21/11, "Sri Lanka gives Maldives $10m import credit," BBC
"The government of Sri Lanka has granted a $10m (£6.1m) import credit to the Republic of Maldives.
Analysts say the agreement signed in Colombo on Thursday during a visit to the island by President of Maldives, Mohammed Nasheed, is mutually beneficial to both countries.
The Maldives archipelago which mainly relies on the tourism industry is currently facing a foreign exchange crisis, according to Amal Jayasinghe, the AFP bureau chief in Colombo.
"Maldives is among few countries in the world that does not collect any income tax," he told BBC Sinhala service.
"It is therefore struggling to balance the government
- spending sheets.""
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11/26/11, "Maldives won't allow debates on anti-Islamic issues: Foreign Minister," Haveeru News Service, Ahmed Hamdhoon
"The government will not allow debates to be held in the Maldives on issues that are against the fundamentals of Islam, Foreign Minister Ahmed Naseem said today.
Minister Naseem told Haveeru that the government would not open a basic Islamic principle such as flogging for public debate in the Maldives despite requests to do so.
"What's there to discuss about flogging? There is nothing to debate about in a matter clearly stated in the religion of Islam. No one can argue with God," he said.
"Our foreign ministry will not allow that to happen."
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12/2/11, "Der Spiegel Slams IPCC Lead Author Rahmstorf: “Scandal Surrounds German Government Climate Advisor”," NoTricksZone, Gosselin
"It appears the tactics of Stefan Rahmstorf are truly beginning to catch up with him. What goes around, comes around. H/t: Lubos Motl
Der Spiegel today has a story on IPCC bigwig and ultra-alarmist Stefan Rahmstorf, who is
- also a lead scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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9/11/11, "Arctic sea ice is melting at its fastest pace in almost 40 years," UK Guardian
"The last time the Arctic was uncontestably free of summertime ice was 125,000 years ago, at the height of the last major interglacial period, known as the Eemian."...
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Some islands and low areas have long been barely habitable, lacked fresh water and the like, became worse via corruption and abuse of its natural resources such as using coral reefs for construction. In the meantime they learned to see the US as the world's ATM machine. Naturally low-lying islands have banded together with the help of the UN to demand billions in reparations for alleged CO2 effects including lack of food and water though one of the islands is building 11 new airports and proudly flogs women.
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