Scary "cases" and “test positive” headlines often don’t refer to actual “cases of Covid 19.” Labs still using PCR tests with cycle threshold over 40 report false positives-British Medical Journal, BMJ letter, 8/2/21

Letter published in BMJ.com, British Medical Journal:

8/2/2021, “Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is not the same as covid-19″

BMJ 2021; 374 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1896 (Published 02 August 2021) Cite this as: BMJ 2021;374:n1896

1. Andrew N Bamji, retired consultant rheumatologist…[Bamji’s blog]
   

Author affiliations bamji@btinternet.com

“Both professionals and the Department of Health and Social Care are still failing to distinguish between infection with SARS-CoV-2 and covid-19, and positive tests continue to be reported as cases of covid-19.1 Covid-19 is a severe immunological consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection but is not universal. It requires the development of hypoxia and biochemical and immunological indicators.

In some laboratories, the cycle threshold in the PCR test (the …” [BMJ requires subscription, however Kmendis below publishes what appears to be entire article)

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Following 8/12/21 article appears to be text from 8/2/21 BMJ article above:

“In some laboratories, the cycle threshold in the PCR test (the numbers of cycles needed for the signal to exceed background levels) is still over 40, so this test is producing false positives in non-infected (or non-infectious) people, and the proportion of so-called false negatives from lateral flow tests is exaggerated.”

8/12/21, “Basics definitions of the terms we use," Kmendis.net

“Both professionals and the Department of Health and Social Care are still failing to distinguish between infection with SARS-CoV-2 and covid-19, and positive tests continue to be reported as cases of covid-19.

Difference between Covid-19 and SARS-CoV-2

Covid-19 is a severe immunological consequence of SARS-CoV-2 infection but is not universal. It requires the development of hypoxia and biochemical and immunological indicators.

In some laboratories, the cycle threshold in the PCR test (the numbers of cycles needed for the signal to exceed background levels) is still over 40, so this test is producing false positives in non-infected (or non-infectious) people, and the proportion of so-called false negatives from lateral flow tests is exaggerated.

The current surge in UK–what it means

The “surge” in cases is true in absolute terms, but any new increase causes testing to be ramped up. The proportion of positive tests over the four weeks up to 9 July rose from

0.4% to 2.6%. Is this really alarming? 

Neither hospital admission rate nor death rate has surged exponentially.

This might reflect the changed age range of infection; older people have already had it, or been vaccinated, and younger people might be asymptomatic or not as seriously ill (their infection does not cause the development of covid-19).

Emerging virus variants

The emergence of virus variants is unsurprising and inevitable; they indicate that the world will have to live with the virus. Should we panic with each new mutation? If we do, we will have an infinite succession of lockdowns (which, if the data are to be believed, make little difference anyway, as there is a disconnect between the timing of test peaks and the introduction of lockdown measures).

Statistics can be twisted to make, or fit, the message. In my area there was an “alarming” 50% increase in “cases”--from two to three. With such low rates, the effect of false positives is magnified.

The credibility of prophets can be judged on their past performance. On that basis, their persistent doom laden warnings show only that the models on which the prophecies were based are flawed.

Look at Israel’s Delta case surge, a model country for vaccination, >15 per cent points more of total population vaccinated than the US. That, in itself, tells us about

the reduction of protection of mRNA vaccines

vs cases/spread.”

 

 

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