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| Manchester, NH, in front of Kay's Bakery |
"The historic stretch of winter weather gripping New Hampshire in recent weeks is helping to prove an old adage among law enforcement circles: Crooks like it hot. Police say the steady string of storms into the Granite State since mid-January show the special relationship between weather and crime: as the snowflakes and temperatures fall, so do the number of certain types of crime - particularly assaults, burglary and robberies.
"Burglars can be stupid, but they're not completely dumb," said Lt. Dan Bailey of the Nashua Police Department. "They're not going to break into a house when they'll leave footprints in the snow.
Reports from areas hit hardest by record-breaking cold and heavy snow appear to support the idea. Police calls are down in Concord and Nashua. Same thing in Manchester. Major crimes have dropped in Boston. New York City police reported 12 consecutive days without a murder, the longest such streak since the department started collecting crime data in 1994.
"You don't have people out and about," said New Hampshire State Police Major David Parenteau. "If people aren't out, there are fewer potential victims for criminals."
It's science
The theory has been tested by researchers, who say the data prove their point.
"Weather has a strong effect on the incidence of criminal activity. For all offenses except manslaughter, higher temperatures lead to higher crime rates," writes Matthew Ranson, an economist for the Cambridge, Mass. consulting firm, Abt Associates.
Ranson recently published results of a study combining 30 years of data across the country and found "a very strong historical relationship between temperature and crime."
Ranson writes in the report that he began looking at the data in an attempt to picture what the world might look like if global temperatures rise. He believes crime, and social disorder, could increase along with temperatures, and said the evidence shows colder stretches over the last 50 years marry up to drop-offs in criminal behavior.
Ranson looked at nine major crime categories, ranging from theft to murder, and reports offense rates decreased when the temperature dropped below about 50 degrees. In most cases, the rates continued to drop as the temperature got colder. The exception was car theft, which jumped when temperatures got below ten degrees."...
Image above from New Hampshire Union Leader, David Lane. via Free Rep.
Regis
Chagnon shovels snow in front of Kay's Bakery as a city crew removes
snow in the "The Hollow" neighborhood of Manchester. A month of snow
and cold has a silver lining. Officials say, certain types of crime,
such as assaults, burglary and robberies, are way down. (DAVID
LANE/UNION LEADER))
- See more at:
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150301/NEWS03/150309973#sthash.piFBYd7L.dpuf
.
Ranson
recently published results of a study combining 30 years of data across
the country and found "a very strong historical relationship between
temperature and crime."
- See more at: http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150301/NEWS03/150309973#sthash.piFBYd7L.dpuf
- See more at: http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150301/NEWS03/150309973#sthash.piFBYd7L.dpuf
.
Bad weather keeps criminals off the street and out of trouble
- See more at: http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150301/NEWS03/150309973#sthash.kRB9acNp.dpuf
The
historic stretch of winter weather gripping New Hampshire in recent
weeks is helping to prove an old adage among law enforcement circles:
Crooks like it hot.
Police say the steady string of storms into the Granite State since mid-January show the special relationship between weather and crime: as the snowflakes and temperatures fall, so do the number of certain types of crime - particularly assaults, burglary and robberies.
"Burglars can be stupid, but they're not completely dumb," said Lt. Dan Bailey of the Nashua Police Department. "They're not going to break into a house when they'll leave footprints in the snow."
Reports from areas hit hardest by record-breaking cold and heavy snow appear to support the idea. Police calls are down in Concord and Nashua. Same thing in Manchester. Major crimes have dropped in Boston. New York City police reported 12 consecutive days without a murder, the longest such streak since the department started collecting crime data in 1994.
"You don't have people out and about," said New Hampshire State Police Major David Parenteau. "If people aren't out, there are fewer potential victims for criminals."
It's science
The theory has been tested by researchers, who say the data prove their point.
"Weather has a strong causal effect on the incidence of criminal activity. For all offenses except manslaughter, higher temperatures lead to higher crime rates," writes Matthew Ranson, an economist for the Cambridge, Mass., consulting firm Abt Associates.
Ranson recently published results of a study combining 30 years of data across the country and found "a very strong historical relationship between temperature and crime."
Ranson writes in the report that he began looking at the data in an attempt to picture what the world might look like if global temperatures rise. He believes crime, and social disorder, could increase along with temperatures, and said the evidence shows colder stretches over the last 50 years marry up to drop-offs in criminal behavior.
Nine crime categories
Ranson looked at nine major crime categories, ranging from theft to murder, and reports offense rates decreased when the temperature dropped below about 50 degrees. In most cases, the rates continued to drop as the temperature got colder. The exception was car theft, which jumped when temperatures dropped below 10 degrees.
Manchester police Lt. Brian O'Keefe compiled statistics last week that support Ranson's theory.
Looking at crime statistics for January and February 2015 - when the heaviest snow fell this winter - compared to the same time frame in 2014, robberies in the Queen City have dropped 10 percent. Homicides have dropped 100 percent. Reports of larceny are down 19 percent. In total, property crimes were down 11 percent.
But consistent with Ranson's report, incidents of auto theft in Manchester rose 65 percent from 17 in 2014 to 28 in 2015. O'Keefe believes the increase could be tied to more people leaving their cars running to warm up in the extreme cold, while they wait indoors, and when they come out the vehicles are gone.
Statistics provided by Bailey also show crime rates falling during cold and snowy weather in Nashua. Comparing statistics from Jan. 1 through Feb. 27 for 2014 to 2015, reports of burglaries in the Gate City dropped from 44 to 18. Simple assaults fell from 116 to 100, and intimidation cases dropped from 21 to 15.
"It makes sense, that if people aren't leaving their homes, certain crime rates would go down," said Lt. Bailey. "If people are staying home, it's less likely someone would try to break in."
Numbers provided by Concord Deputy Police Chief Greg Taylor show similar results in the Capital City. Comparing police reports filed between Jan. 1 and Feb. 20, 2014, to 2015, reports of burglaries fell from 23 to 11. Robberies dropped from 3 to 0, and theft and stolen property offenses fell from 110 in 2014 to 93 in 2015.
"It would be hard to say that the cold weather was the cause of the reduction in offenses reported in 2015, but there is certainly a reduction from 2014," said Taylor. "Weather conditions probably played a role in this reduction, but to quantify this would be difficult. The patrol officers on the street have reported a lot fewer people being out and about in the late evening and early morning hours, most likely due to the weather. It would appear to be much harder for criminals to access certain buildings due to snowfall and escape routes would certainly be limited as well."
Statewide, in January and February 2015, New Hampshire State Police troopers were assigned to 1,685 cases, according to Parenteau. That represents a 1.06 percent drop from the same two months in 2014, when troopers were assigned to 1,703 cases.
Not weather related
The snow and cold doesn't deter everyone from behaving badly. Last month, Alexander Twardosky, 21, of Manchester, wanted for damaging his grandparents' car, was tracked down by Merrimack police who followed the footprints he left behind in the snow to a home on Timber Lane. Police say they found him inside a garage hiding behind a motorcycle. He was arrested and charged with criminal mischief, domestic-related, and criminal trespass.
"During one of the recent storms we had a trooper out patrolling I-89," said Parenteau. "The snow was falling heavy and the speed limit was reduced to 45 mph, and he was behind someone driving 81 mph. There's always people out there who don't care what the weather is."
- See more at: http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150301/NEWS03/150309973#sthash.kRB9acNp.dpuf
Police say the steady string of storms into the Granite State since mid-January show the special relationship between weather and crime: as the snowflakes and temperatures fall, so do the number of certain types of crime - particularly assaults, burglary and robberies.
"Burglars can be stupid, but they're not completely dumb," said Lt. Dan Bailey of the Nashua Police Department. "They're not going to break into a house when they'll leave footprints in the snow."
Reports from areas hit hardest by record-breaking cold and heavy snow appear to support the idea. Police calls are down in Concord and Nashua. Same thing in Manchester. Major crimes have dropped in Boston. New York City police reported 12 consecutive days without a murder, the longest such streak since the department started collecting crime data in 1994.
"You don't have people out and about," said New Hampshire State Police Major David Parenteau. "If people aren't out, there are fewer potential victims for criminals."
It's science
The theory has been tested by researchers, who say the data prove their point.
"Weather has a strong causal effect on the incidence of criminal activity. For all offenses except manslaughter, higher temperatures lead to higher crime rates," writes Matthew Ranson, an economist for the Cambridge, Mass., consulting firm Abt Associates.
Ranson recently published results of a study combining 30 years of data across the country and found "a very strong historical relationship between temperature and crime."
Ranson writes in the report that he began looking at the data in an attempt to picture what the world might look like if global temperatures rise. He believes crime, and social disorder, could increase along with temperatures, and said the evidence shows colder stretches over the last 50 years marry up to drop-offs in criminal behavior.
Nine crime categories
Ranson looked at nine major crime categories, ranging from theft to murder, and reports offense rates decreased when the temperature dropped below about 50 degrees. In most cases, the rates continued to drop as the temperature got colder. The exception was car theft, which jumped when temperatures dropped below 10 degrees.
Manchester police Lt. Brian O'Keefe compiled statistics last week that support Ranson's theory.
Looking at crime statistics for January and February 2015 - when the heaviest snow fell this winter - compared to the same time frame in 2014, robberies in the Queen City have dropped 10 percent. Homicides have dropped 100 percent. Reports of larceny are down 19 percent. In total, property crimes were down 11 percent.
But consistent with Ranson's report, incidents of auto theft in Manchester rose 65 percent from 17 in 2014 to 28 in 2015. O'Keefe believes the increase could be tied to more people leaving their cars running to warm up in the extreme cold, while they wait indoors, and when they come out the vehicles are gone.
Statistics provided by Bailey also show crime rates falling during cold and snowy weather in Nashua. Comparing statistics from Jan. 1 through Feb. 27 for 2014 to 2015, reports of burglaries in the Gate City dropped from 44 to 18. Simple assaults fell from 116 to 100, and intimidation cases dropped from 21 to 15.
"It makes sense, that if people aren't leaving their homes, certain crime rates would go down," said Lt. Bailey. "If people are staying home, it's less likely someone would try to break in."
Numbers provided by Concord Deputy Police Chief Greg Taylor show similar results in the Capital City. Comparing police reports filed between Jan. 1 and Feb. 20, 2014, to 2015, reports of burglaries fell from 23 to 11. Robberies dropped from 3 to 0, and theft and stolen property offenses fell from 110 in 2014 to 93 in 2015.
"It would be hard to say that the cold weather was the cause of the reduction in offenses reported in 2015, but there is certainly a reduction from 2014," said Taylor. "Weather conditions probably played a role in this reduction, but to quantify this would be difficult. The patrol officers on the street have reported a lot fewer people being out and about in the late evening and early morning hours, most likely due to the weather. It would appear to be much harder for criminals to access certain buildings due to snowfall and escape routes would certainly be limited as well."
Statewide, in January and February 2015, New Hampshire State Police troopers were assigned to 1,685 cases, according to Parenteau. That represents a 1.06 percent drop from the same two months in 2014, when troopers were assigned to 1,703 cases.
Not weather related
The snow and cold doesn't deter everyone from behaving badly. Last month, Alexander Twardosky, 21, of Manchester, wanted for damaging his grandparents' car, was tracked down by Merrimack police who followed the footprints he left behind in the snow to a home on Timber Lane. Police say they found him inside a garage hiding behind a motorcycle. He was arrested and charged with criminal mischief, domestic-related, and criminal trespass.
"During one of the recent storms we had a trooper out patrolling I-89," said Parenteau. "The snow was falling heavy and the speed limit was reduced to 45 mph, and he was behind someone driving 81 mph. There's always people out there who don't care what the weather is."
- See more at: http://www.unionleader.com/article/20150301/NEWS03/150309973#sthash.kRB9acNp.dpuf
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