News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

When climate poll question says “speaking against climate science” rather than “speaking against asserted climate projections,” the poll is biased says peer reviewed study

2/19/13, "A new poll of Earth scientists has found that a majority are skeptical of human-caused global warming." Robert Zimmerman, Behind the Black

"Consensus! A new poll of Earth scientists has found that a majority are skeptical of human-caused global warming.

"Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem."...
 
[Ed. note: Language used and bias of poll questions is addressed here, Bob notes]: 

(continuing): "What matters is the data. However, this quote about the poll is significant:

"One interesting aspect of this new survey is the unmistakably alarmist bent of the survey takers. They frequently use terms such as “denier” to describe scientists who are skeptical of an asserted global warming crisis, and 

they refer to skeptical scientists as  

speaking against climate science rather than

“speaking against asserted climate projections.”  

Accordingly, alarmists will have a hard time arguing the survey is biased or somehow connected to the ‘vast right-wing climate denial machine.’Another interesting aspect of this new survey is that it reports on the beliefs of scientists themselves rather than bureaucrats who often publish alarmist statements without polling their member scientists. We now have meteorologists, geoscientists and engineers all reporting that they are skeptics of an asserted global warming crisis, yet the bureaucrats of these organizations frequently suck up to the media and suck up to government grant providers by trying to tell us 

the opposite of what their scientist members actually believe.""

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2/13/13, "Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis," Forbes, James Taylor, opinion

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Paper notes its concern with "framing" of issues:

Nov. 2012, "Science or Science Fiction? Professionals’ Discursive Construction of Climate Change," Organization Studies, Sage Publications

"Notes

4.  "As the aim of our paper is the reconstruction of the framings and their relative positioning to each other and not the testing of hypotheses, we restrict the quantitative analyses to measure simple frequencies and the strength of the association between variables."...

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It should be noted that per climate scientists including James Hansen, there has been no "global warming" for the past decade. Hansen notes climate estimates are hampered by missing aerosol data (p. 6, last parag.), that a satellite to measure aerosols crashed on takeoff and no plans have been made for a re-launch:

Jan. 15, 2013, "Global Temperature Update through 2012," Columbia University, J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy

Jan, 2013, p. 1, "The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing.... 

An update through 2012 of our global analysis1 (Fig. 1) reveals 2012 as having practically the same temperature as 2011, significantly lower than the maximum reached in 2010....2012 is nominally the 9th warmest year, but it is indistinguishable in rank with several other years, as shown by the error estimate for comparing nearby years....

Satisfactory quantitative interpretation has been impossible because of the absence of adequate aerosol measurements 3,4."...

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Summer 2012 was not hotter globally but only in mid North America and the Arctic:

p. 2, "The most extreme temperature anomalies in 2012, exceeding 2.5°C (4.5°F) on annual mean, occurred in the Arctic and in the middle of North America (Fig. 2). The large springtime heat anomaly in North America dried out the soil in a large part of the United States, thus leaving little soil moisture to provide evaporative cooling in the summer. The summer temperature anomaly was smaller than in the prior two seasons, but summer temperature variability is smaller than in the other seasons, so the 2012 summer anomaly was also unusually large as described in NOAA reports 6."...

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Global CO2 has decreased since the 1980's (US CO2 which has dropped drastically isn't addressed in this report). 

p. 5, "The largest climate forcing is caused by increasing greenhouse gases, principally CO2 (Fig. 5). The annual increment in the greenhouse gas forcing (Fig. 5) has declined from about 0.05 W/m2 in the 1980s to about 0.035 W/m2 in recent years 8. 

The decline is primarily a consequence of successful phase-out of ozone-depleting gases and reduction of the growth rate of methane. Also, the airborne fraction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions has declined....The CO2 forcing growth rate has been steady despite the rapid growth of fossil fuel emissions.

The second largest human-made forcing is probably atmospheric aerosols, although the aerosol forcing is extremely uncertain3,4.... This aerosol forcing can be described as an educated guess.... (Fig. 6b). 


The increased (negative) aerosol forcing is plausible, given the increased global use of coal during this period, but the indicated quantification is arbitrary, 

given the absence of aerosol measurements of the needed accuracy....

A slower growth rate of the net climate forcing may have contributed to the standstill of global temperature in the past decade, but it cannot explain the standstill, because it is known that the planet has been out of energy balance, more energy coming in from the sun than energy being radiated to space.10 The planetary energy imbalance is due largely to the increase of climate forcings in prior decades and the great thermal inertia of the ocean. The more important factor in the standstill is probably unforced dynamical variability, essentially climatic "noise"."

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On page 6 Hansen states the "major wild card" in climate prediction is lack of aerosol data and no hope of obtaining such in the foreseeable future. The paragraph below cites crash of the satellite that was to measure aerosols.:

p. 6, (last parag.): "The one major wild card in projections of future climate change is the unmeasured climate forcing due to aerosol changes and their effects on clouds. Anecdotal information indicates that particulate air pollution has increased in regions with increasing coal burning, but assessment of the climate forcing requires global measurement of detailed physical properties of the aerosols. The one satellite mission that was capable of making measurements with the required detail and accuracy was lost via a launch failure, and as yet there are no plans for a replacement mission with the needed capabilities. 4" 

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Ed. note: Politicians who state AGW is happening and therefore US taxpayers must pay more, new taxes must be added, new laws enacted, academic institutions and others must receive more money are committing and have committed a criminal act. 

 






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