“The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.” Our goal should be “to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.”
Oct. 4, 2020, “Great Barrington Declaration,” by Dr. Martin Kulldorff, Dr. Sunetra Gupta, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, gbdeclaration.org
“As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include
*lower childhood vaccination rates,
*worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes,
*fewer cancer screenings and
*deteriorating mental health – leading to
*greater excess mortality in years to come,
with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden.
Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine.
Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:
Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.
Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.
Medical and Public Health Scientists and Medical Practitioners
Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi, em. Professor of Medical Microbiology, University of Mainz, GermanyDr. Rajiv Bhatia, MD, MPH, Physician with the VA, epidemiology, health equity practice, and health impact assessment of public policy, USA
Prof. Stephen Bremner,
Professor of Medical Statistics, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, UK
Prof. Anthony J Brookes, Department of Genetics & Genome Biology, University of Leicester, UK
Dr. Helen Colhoun, professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, with expertise in risk prediction, University of Edinburgh, UK
Prof. Angus Dalgleish, MD, FRCP, FRACP, FRCPath, FMedSci, Department of Oncology, St. George’s, University of London, UK
Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism expert and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA.
Prof. Motti Gerlic, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Dr. Gabriela Gomes, professor, a mathematician focussing on population dynamics, evolutionary theory and infectious disease epidemiology. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
Prof. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, UK
Dr. Michael Jackson, PhD is an ecologist and research fellow at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.
Dr. David Katz, MD, MPH, President, True Health Initiative and the Founder and Former Director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA
Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden
Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, PhD., biostatistician and data scientist, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science. Stanford University Medical School, USA
Dr. Michael Levitt, PhD is a biophysicist and a professor of structural biology. Dr. Levitt received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems. Stanford University, USA
Prof. David Livermore, Professor, microbiologist with expertise in disease epidemiology, antibiotic resistance and rapid diagnostics. University of East Anglia, UK
Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden.
Dr. Paul McKeigue, professor of epidemiology and public health physician, with expertise in statistical modelling of disease. University of Edinburgh, UK
Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA
Prof. Ariel Munitz, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Prof. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, Professor of Finance, Director at Behavioural Finance Working Group, School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London, UK
Prof. Partha P. Majumder, PhD, FNA, FASc, FNASc, FTWAS National Science Chair, Distinguished Professor and Founder National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, KalyaniEmeritus Professor Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
Prof. Udi Qimron, Chair, Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Prof. Matthew Ratcliffe, Professor of Philosophy specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, UK
Dr. Mario Recker, Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics at the Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, UK
Dr. Eyal Shahar, MD professor (emeritus) of public health, physician, epidemiologist, with expertise in causal and statistical inference. University of Arizona, USA
Prof. Karol Sikora MA, PhD, MBBChir, FRCP, FRCR, FFPM, Medical Director of Rutherford Health, Oncologist, & Dean of Medicine, UK
Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada
Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, PhD. associate professor of biostatistics. Director of the Baylor Statistical Consulting Center. Focus on infectious disease spread and diagnosis. Baylor University, USA
Dr. Simon Thornley, PhD, epidemiologist, biostatistics and epidemiological analysis, communicable and non-communicable diseases. University of Auckland, New Zealand.
Prof. Ellen Townsend, Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, UK.
Prof. Lisa White, Professor of Modelling and Epidemiology Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, UK
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