End US War Machine: Canada #1 in Covid nursing home deaths at 80-85%, New Zealand #2 at 72%, Ireland #3 at 63%-International Long Term Care Policy Network, 6/26/20

“Sources: International Long Term Care Policy Network, Avik Roy • Data as of June 26, 2020, Chart from Freopp.org, Note: Finland, Ireland, New Zealand, & Norway do not report deaths of care home residents outside of LTC facilities….There are idiosyncrasies in the way that U.S. states and other countries report nursing home fatalities; we will continue to monitor the best ways to reconcile international comparisons.”…

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Additional Canada source, Washington Post:

May 18, 2020, “Canada’s nursing home crisis: 81 percent of coronavirus deaths are in long-term care facilities," Washington Post, Amanda Coletta

“Nursing homes account for 81 percent of the country’s covid-19 deaths, according to Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, a far greater proportion than in the United States.”

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“Figure 5. Share of care home residents compared to the total population, share of care home residents who died (linked to COVID-19) and total deaths per million population in the country," p. 26

June 26, 2020: “Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence.” ltccovid.org

“This document is available through the website ltccovid.org, which was set up in March 2020 as a rapidly shared collection of resources for community and institution-based long-term care responses to Covid-19. The website is hosted by CPEC at the London School of Economics and Political Science and draws on the resources of the International Long Term Care Policy Network….

The authors of this report are fully aware of the limitations of existing data and do not consider that the data presented here are directly comparable. However, it is important to share these data as, if the levels of infections and deaths of care residents and staff are not measured in a timely (even if imperfect) manner, there is a danger that opportunities to alert policymakers to the scale of the impact of COVID-19 in care homes will be missed. This may result in allocations of scarce resources (including testing, personal protection equipment, medical personnel and medicines) that leave out the settings that are experiencing some of the biggest challenges in relation to COVID-19….

This document uses “care homes” for all non-acute residential and nursing facilities that house people with some form of long-term care needs. It is important to note that what is considered a care home is different in most countries and as a result this means that the data summarised in this report is not strictly comparable….

Another difficulty in comparing data on deaths is that in some countries the data only record the place of death, while others also report deaths in hospital of care home residents. We have tried to clarify this in this report where possible. There may also be differences in the extent to which care home residents are transferred to hospital or not….

Australia…31% of deaths were care home residents, as of June 21, 2020….

The Department of Health of the Australian Government first published deaths linked to COVID-19 in care homes on the 15th of April, as well as deaths among users of home care services. On 21st June, Australia has had a total of 102 deaths, of these 29 were residents in subsidized aged care facilities. There were also 3 deaths among people who used publicly subsidized home care. Care home residents represented 31% of total deaths7. These figures are based on people who have tested positive for COVID-19 and are for the place of residence, not place of death (may include residents who died in hospital)….

United Kingdom…[Presented in 3 separate parts]: “Figures including care homes are not reported in the same way in England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, therefore we present them in separate sub-sections.“

As of the 20th of June there had been 303,110 lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK and 42,589 deaths….Figures including care homes are not reported in the same way in England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, therefore we present them in separate sub-sections.

England and Wales…45%

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provides weekly updates of deaths registered in England and Wales. The nature of these figures differs from the NHS figures in that they include all deaths where “COVID-19” was mentioned (by a doctor) on death certificates (i.e. where ICD10 codes U07.1 and U07.2 were used). Up to the 12th of June, there were 48,538 deaths registered in England and Wales involving COVID-1974... As of 12th of June, 30,868 COVID-19 related deaths occurred in hospital (64%), 14,404 occurred in care homes (30%), 2,205 occurred in private homes (5%) and 660 in hospices (1%)75….

There were 26,745 excess deaths in care homes in England and Wales during that period77. In England, the CQC also collect data on all care home resident deaths, not only those occurring in the care home. Data up until the 1st May show that 12,526 care home residents in England and Wales died from COVID-19 or related causes78. For this period, 72% of all care home resident deaths occurred in the care home. Since then, data for England alone has been released by CQC which shows that since the 2nd of May and up until 12th of June, there were a further 7,174 COVID-19 related deaths of care home residents79. Of those where the place of death was stated (6,552), 5,063 (77%) happened in the care homes. Thus, in total since the first death of a care home resident due to COVID-19, 19,700 deaths of care home residents have been registered in England and Wales80. For the same period, the CQC data also show that 84% of all deaths of care home residents (where place of death is stated) occur in care homes. Assuming this figure is also true for Wales, this would suggest that the total number of excess deaths among care home residents in England and Wales (including those who died elsewhere) would be around 31,8398.1. Accordingly, deaths registered as linked to COVID-19 in care homes would represent 45% (14,404/31,839) of all excess deaths of care home residents in England and Wales….

Northern Ireland…52%

Since 19 April, the Department of Health of Northern Ireland has been releasing daily statistics on COVID-1984. As of 21st of June, 4,866 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Northern Ireland, with 545 deaths. Of those deaths, 186 (34%) occurred in care homes. There were 70 active COVID-19 in care homes and 30 closed outbreaks85. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency also publish data on deaths, including those where COVID-19 (suspected or confirmed) is mentioned on the death certificate86. According to this data, between the 21st March and the 12th June, there had been 795 registered COVID-19 deaths in Northern Ireland. Of those, 338 (43%) occurred in care homes. Excess deaths during this period were 913, meaning that COVID-19 related deaths accounted for 87% of excess deaths in Northern Ireland.

For the same period [March 21-June 12], the total number of care home residents87 who died from suspected or confirmed COVID-19 was 412, meaning that around 83% of all COVID-19 care home resident deaths occurred within the care home. Furthermore, this would mean that care home resident deaths make up 52% of all COVID-19 deaths in Northern Ireland.

Scotland…47%

Data for the period 7th March up to the 14th June…a total of 1,896 COVID-19 deaths occurred in care homes (47% of all COVID-19 deaths)94….

United States…45% (47 states, 4 states not reported)

As of the 18th June, there is COVID-19 data on long-term care facilities (LTCFs) available from 47 states (4 are not report) 96. There have been 9,822 facilities with known cases (across 44 states) and 240,138 cases in LTCFs, of whom 50,185 died. Residents in LTCFs represented 14% of the cases and 45% of the deaths.”

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More on nursing home deaths:

5/7/20, updated 8/31/20, “Nursing Homes & Assisted Living Facilities Account for 42% of COVID-19 Deaths," Freopp.org, Gregg Girvan. More recent updates included

“A startling statistic has profound implications for the way we’ve managed the coronavirus pandemic.”

And:

July 15, 2020, “Nursing Home Deaths From COVID-19: U.S. Historical Data,” FreeOp, Avik Roy

“Long-term care facilities like nursing homes and assisted living facilities represent the largest—and still growing—share of coronavirus deaths.”

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