3/26/21, “A sober examination of the Covid data reveals there’s no reason to panic,” UK Telegraph, Andrew Lilico
“Case numbers are now vastly lower than they were in early January and continue to drift further down."…
“Let us begin with the familiar UK Coronavirus Dashboard data published every day at 4pm.
The standard way to present this (the way the Dashboard itself presents the data) is in terms of the percentage weekly change in the seven day average number of cases….
When schools opened, with a vast increase (more than doubling) in the number of tests and the nature of testing changing profoundly (whereas most previous tests were on people who thought they might be sick, the tests in schools were mainly random) it was thought testing would start to pick up a higher percentage of [so-called] infections, so official case numbers might rise even if actual infections did not.
That has not happened.
The official cases data continues to show a small weekly drop. The latest ONS Infection Survey, out today, shows much the same result, with the number of people testing positive for coronavirus having levelled off in the week ending 20 March.
Now it is plausible that the rate of weekly decline being unchanged actually means that the schools return is slowing the decline in cases. The vaccine ought to be making the rate of decline accelerate, so that each week the decline rate rises by 2 to 4 per cent.
The rate being stable, as it has been, may mean that schools returning has so far added around ten per cent to daily case numbers. Or perhaps instead the effects of people drifting back to the office and going to see families post-vaccination are increasing. It is unclear. Case numbers are now vastly lower than they were in early January and continue to drift further down. As the weather warms up and as the effects of ever-more vaccinations kick in, that rate of decline is likely to accelerate. The relaxations of 29 March and Step 2 on 12 April will doubtless each see some impact on R.
But with around 60 per cent of us now having some protection, via vaccination or past infection [herd immunity], there is only much more modest scope for the virus to spread. Should the current wave on the Continent produce some unexpected vaccine escape variant, things may change. But as things stand in the UK, cases are still contracting and there is as yet nothing in the data to suggest they will not continue to do so.”
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Added: Sorry, pal. Keep trying.
Above image, “The Great Reset Fraud,” Strategic Culture
Above, Prince Charles in his “sustainable” Aston Martin converted to run on biofuel, June 2008
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