Coronavirus deaths (chart below) “have dropped considerably in New York City….Industries in New York, however, are continuing to suffer from the last [six] four months of restrictions, and the real estate market for Manhattan is seeing one of its worst months on record.”… NY City’s Covid deaths have long been “flattened,” “Updated September 15, at 1 p.m.”
Sept. 10, 2020, “Manhattan rental market plunges, leaving 15,000 empty “apartments in August,” CNBC.com, Robert Frank
- The number of empty rental apartments in Manhattan nearly tripled compared with last year, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.
- The inventory of empty units, which rose to 15,000 in August, is the largest ever recorded since data started being collected 14 years ago, the report said.
- Hopes for a rebound in the fall or the end of 2020 look increasingly unlikely.
“The number of empty rental apartments in Manhattan nearly tripled compared with last year, as more New Yorkers fled the city and prices declined.
Experts say the migration from the city to the suburbs during the [federal government’s destruction of the US based on an unverified UK computer model about a virus named] Covid-19…has been fueled in large part by Manhattan renters leaving the city.
“The rental market is weak and getting weaker,”said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. “The first-time buyers in outlying areas are largely coming from the Manhattan rental market.”
Hopes for a rebound in the fall or the end of 2020 look increasingly unlikely. Although rental prices have come down-median rental prices fell 4% in August-the discounts are not steep enough yet to lure new renters back to the city. The average rental price for a two-bedroom in Manhattan is still $4,756 a month.
The fall is generally a slow period in the Manhattan rental market, especially before an election, Miller said.
Landlords are offering ever-larger incentives to try to entice renters, with the largest share of landlords offering concessions in history. On average, landlords were offering 1.9 months of free rent to new renters in August. The weakest segment of the rental market is the lower end, for one bedrooms and studios, partly a result of the [government pandemic’s greater impact on lower earners.
Average rental prices for studios fell 9%, to $2,574, while the average for one-bedroom apartments fell 5% to $3,445.
The big question for the Manhattan economy and beyond is how far will the economic ripples from the weak rental market spread. While big landlords like REITs and real estate companies have access to capital, smaller mom and pop landlords with just one or two buildings may have trouble paying their mortgages and property taxes, which could later hit banks and lenders, as well as New York’s tax revenue.”…
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Added: Second quarter 2020 sales of new Manhattan apartments fell to lowest on record for the report:
July 6, 2020, “Manhattan Apartments See Record Loss in Sales,” Statista, Willem Roper
“Coronavirus cases have dropped considerably in New York City….Industries in New York, however, are continuing to suffer from the last [now six] four months of restrictions, and the real estate market for Manhattan is seeing one of its worst months on record.
According to a new report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman, sales of new apartments in Manhattan during the second quarter of 2020 fell by 54 percent – the largest percentage decline in 30 years. The report also stated that the median apartment price fell by 18 percent to just around $1 million on average. In total, there were 1,147 sales during the quarter, which is the lowest number ever recorded for the report.
New leases and sales have rapidly fallen since March, when COVID-19 restrictions in the city put a halt to one of the largest real estate markets in the world. Open houses and showings have been non-existent, and the mass exodus of wealthy New Yorkers has curbed any recovery for the months of May and June. Brokers were allowed to resume showing apartments on June 22, which has given prospective renters just two weeks to begin sales again.”
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Added: Long before Covid, in April 2019, New York State passed a law making the city and state much more dangerous, more like a third world toilet, eliminating bail for many crimes:
June 20, 2020, “Get ready for the new ‘escape from New York’ (opinion),” Staten Island Advance, Tom Wrobleski, opinion
“Those who could afford to leave the city fled early in the pandemic, heading to upstate towns where COVID-19 didn’t hit as hard, or to their summer homes in the Hamptons or the Poconos. Some of them may never come back.
You know who else may never return? Business owners and workers who’ve grown accustomed to working from home.
Business owners can see how much money they can save if they downsize or do away with physical offices. Add to that the hassles of ensuring that workplaces are set up for social distancing, as well as having to do regular temperature checks or other screenings of employees. Who needs the added headaches and expenses?
Meanwhile, some workers have discovered they actually like working from home, and they may be more productive when the elimination of commute times and the myriad time-wasting distractions of office life are factored in.
On top of that, how many people are going to want to crowd onto packed buses and trains in order to get to work, especially once flu season kicks in in a couple of months? The first person who coughs or sneezes is going to find themselves tossed to the side of the road.
Uncertainty is everywhere you look. How will the city and state fill multibillion-dollar budget gaps? Homeowners and business owners can already feel the tax target on their backs. Another incentive to leave the big, bad city behind.
And let’s face it: Mayor Bill de Blasio had already been dropping in stature before the pandemic started. New Yorkers had wearied of his do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do style, his frequent trips out of town, his detachment from the day-to-day city grind, and the delusion of grandeur that led to his pathetic run for the presidency.
His act has only grown worse during coronavirus, with de Blasio constantly big-footed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on big decisions and this week fumbling over when the city will go into Phase 2 of re-opening….
The slope we started down when we stopped enforcing quality-of-life crimes and started turning criminals back out onto the streets without bail is getting more slippery by the day.”…
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Added: Per CDC, deaths near normal, no raging pandemic across US, deaths through Sept. 5, reported as of Sept.10, 2020. Scroll to end of page:
“Mortality Surveillance,” cdc.gov.
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Added: Catastrophic Covid missteps by Cuomo and New York City mayor, Bill de Blasio
May 20, 2020, “Andrew Cuomo is no hero. He’s to blame for New York’s coronavirus catastrophe,” UK Guardian, Lyta Gold, Nathan Robinson
“ProPublica recently released a report outlining catastrophic missteps by Cuomo and the New York City mayor, Bill de Blasio, which probably resulted in many thousands of needless coronavirus cases....By mid-May, New York City alone had almost 20,000 deaths,...and New York state as a whole suffered 10 times as many deaths as California.
Federal failures played a role, of course, but this tragedy was absolutely due, in part, to decisions by the governor.”…
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