Trump leads nationally and in four new state polls: Colorado, Georgia, Missouri, and Arkansas, Emerson College polls. National poll dates 9/11-13, state poll dates 9/9-9/13, 2016

Trump 43
Hillary 41
Johnson 9
Stein 2

Georgia: Trump 45, Hillary 39
Colorado: Trump 42, Hillary 38 
Missouri: Trump 47, Hillary 34
Arkansas: Trump 57, Hillary 29

National poll conducted Sept. 11-13, 2016, 800 likely voters, automated, land lines only. "Data was weighted according to 2012 election results, age, gender, political affiliation, and region." (p. 3) 38.3D, 32.6R, 29.1 Ind. Male 47, female 53. (p. 5) White 72.3, black 11.0, Hispanic 9.9. (p. 9)

State polls conducted Sept. 9-13, 2016 [total of 4 days, starting two days earlier than national poll], 600 likely voters each (p. 4). "Data was weighted according to 2012 election results, age, gender, political affiliation, and region."

 




9/15/16, "Trump leads Clinton nationally and in four states polled; 3 of 4 Senate incumbents look safe; pneumonia news hurting Clinton," Emerson College Polling Society, Boston, Mass.

"In the first national poll conducted by Emerson College during this general election season, the presidential race is looking like a dead heat, with Donald Trump edging out Hillary Clinton 43% to 41%, well within the poll’s 3.4% margin of error (MOE). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holds 9% of the popular vote, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein gets 2%.

Eight in 10 (81%) of voters surveyed nationally [9/11-13] were aware that Clinton was recently diagnosed with pneumonia, a revelation that appears to be hurting her with some voters.

In four state-level polls released at the same time as the national poll [but reflecting different dates, starting 9/9 two days earlier than national poll and running for a total of four days], Trump leads by

4 points in Colorado (42% to 38%), 

6 points in Georgia (45% to 39%), 

13 points in Missouri (47% to 34%) and has

a blowout-level lead in Arkansas, 57% to 29%. 

U.S. Senate races in three of the four states polled show the incumbents with a solid lead over their challengers. In Arkansas, GOP Senator John Boozman has a 14-point edge over Democrat Conner Eldridge, 44% to 30%. Georgia Republican Johnny Isakson leads Jim Barksdale 48% to 32%, and Colorado’s Democratic incumbent, Michael Bennet is running 7 points ahead of Darryl Glenn, 46% to 39%. Missouri is the exception, with Democrat Jason Kander holding a 2-point edge over GOP incumbent Roy Blunt, 42% to 40%."

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Colorado, page 14: 34.2D, 29.4R, 36.4 Ind.p. 15: 49 male, 51 female. In 2012 voted for: Obama 51, Romney 46.5 (p. 15). p. 18: White 76.2, black 3.2, Hispanic 16.0, Am. Indian 1.8, Asian 1.2.

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Georgia, page 19: 35.3D, 37.4R, 27.3 Ind.; page 23: White 58.4, black 29.2, Hispanic 2, Am. Indian 1.5, Asian 1.2

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Missouri, page 25: 38.1D, 35R, 26.9 Ind.; page 29: White 75.5, black 14.7, Am. Indian 3.3, Hispanic 2.5

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Arkansas, page 10: 25D, 44R, 31.1 Ind.; page 14: White 69.2, black 17.4, Am. Indian 3.5, Hispanic 1.8. other 6.5

 

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