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Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Per latest Russia Levada poll, confidence in Pres. Putin increases among Russian people even with the war. Assumptions about ‘scared’ or ‘unwilling’ poll respondents prove false-Levada poll, April 21-27, 2022

Poll dates of Levada Center poll in Russia, April 21-27, 2022...10/1/2022, “Tobin Harshaw: “As you note in an article you co-authored, hopes that Russians would oppose the war have been dashed. Why?”” Bloomberg, “How Does Putin Stay So Popular While Losing the War in Ukraine?”…image via Bloomberg

ANO “Levada-Center” is included by the Ministry of Justice in the register of non-profit organizations performing the functions of a foreign agent.” (end of page)

6/14/2022, “Willingness to participate in surveys: results of the experiment, levada-ru.translate.goog, Denis Volkov, Ksenia Agapeeva
……….
The Levada Center continues to publish research data on

the analysis of willingness to take part in surveys.

In April [2022], the Levada Center conducted a methodological

experiment, the purpose of which was

to get an idea of ​​

which groups of the population are currently

more likely to agree

to take part in telephone surveys:

is there a difference in the reachability of potential respondents

depending on their gender, age, education, size of population? the

place where they live.

In addition, the task was to test

the following hypotheses:

that respondents who did not support the country’s leadership,

in the current conditions,

more often refuse to participate in surveys,

that those who agreed to take part again

give more positive assessments of ongoing events

than participants in monthly

surveys. [These hypotheses proved false.]

The main results of the experiment:…

………………

In following five examples, poll results were the opposite

of hopes or assumptions:

…………………….

[One] “The share of those who declare

their confidence

in Vladimir Putin (+16%) [up 16% from last survey]

and want to see him in the presidency after 2024

(+14%) [up 14% from last survey]

has increased….

Respondents who agreed to take part in the re-survey were

asked to answer several questions about the current situation,

including a question about trust in Vladimir Putin and

support for his new term.”…

………………………………………….

[Two]: “Political preferences:…

It was assumed

that respondents who previously did not support

the president

may now more often refuse to participate in the survey.

The methodological experiment

did not confirm

this hypothesis….

The assumption

that respondents who were previously opposed

more often refuse to participate in polls,

was not confirmed….

The rejection rate in both groups (who supported and who

did not support the president in 2021)

is about the same level….

Respondents agree to re-participate in the survey,

regardless of how they previously answered the question

about support for the authorities….

We used questions from

previous measurements on

attitudes towards Vladimir Putin’s presidency after 2024

and on trust in the president.”

………………………………………..

[Three]: The assumption

was not confirmed

that people who are ready to re-participate in telephone surveys

generally give more positive assessments of ongoing events

and speak more freely about their attitude to politics.”…

………………………………………….

[Four]. “The experiment did not confirm

the assumption

that respondents who do not approve

of the activities of the

country’s leadership

are more likely to refuse to participate

in the survey.”…

………………………………………..

[Five]: Telephone vs in person responses “generally similar:

In person Levada surveys are conducted at the respondent’s

home by the method of personal interview.”]

The assumption

was not confirmed

that people who repeatedly participate in telephone surveys

assess events more positively…

[Additionally,] estimates of the respondents of the

telephone survey

are generally similar to the answers of the participants in the…

door-to-door surveys

for March and April 2022.”…

………………………………………..

Additional 3 items of general interest from poll:

…………………………………

One: Men and women agree/refuse interviews at same rate:

Socio-demographic characteristics of respondents and

non-participants:

The results of the experiment showed that the proportion of

successful interviews (achievability level) among men and

women is approximately the same.”…

………………………………

Two: Education:

As a rule, people with higher education

are much more likely to take part in telephone surveys (if this

feature is not controlled in a special way with the help of quotas).

In the experimental survey, the proportion of successful

interviews among participants with higher education was

also higher than among participants without higher education.

This happened because respondents

without higher education

answered the phone much less frequently.

At the same time, the level of refusals among respondents

with different levels of education turned out to be

approximately the same (the only exception was Moscow:

Muscovites with higher education more often agreed to take part

in the survey). As a result, the largest share of successful

interviews was among Muscovites with higher education,

and the smallest

among rural residents

without higher education….

Among those who took part in the survey,

compared with the sample, there are

more respondents with higher education (as noted earlier,

they answered the phone more often), and more Muscovites –

due to the fact that Muscovites with higher education answered

the phone more often than others,

and refused less often.”…

…………………………………………..

Three: Opinion of Pres. Putin wasn’t predictive either way

of those who agreed to re-survey:

In addition, those who agreed to take part in the re-survey

and those who refused it

did not practically differ from each other

in terms of indicators of support for the president.”…

……………………………………………………

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