Jared: "“Our voters aren’t going anywhere. The trailer parks are rock solid. What choice do they have? They’ve got vote for us.”… No one has more contempt for Trump’s voters than Kushner does, and no one expresses it more frequently.””…6/1/20
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11/3/20, “According to the [Edison] exit poll, Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men [-5%].”
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“Improving among white Northern voters is the core of the G.O.P. route to victory, regardless of whether the party makes gains with Hispanic voters. If the Republicans can’t make gains among white Northerners…it just won’t really matter whether they receive 25 or 40 percent of the Hispanic vote....Hispanic voters are disproportionately concentrated in noncompetitive states like Texas and California. This makes it even harder for the Republicans to claim the presidency by focusing on them, since there are relatively few Hispanic voters in the battleground states.”
11/20/2014, “Hispanic Voters Are Important for Republicans, but Not Indispensable,“ NY Times, Nate Cohn
“The country’s growing Hispanic population was widely credited with tipping Mr. Obama’s re-election in 2012. Just about every post-2012 analysis found that the Republicans needed to do better among Hispanic voters in 2016….
Yet a close look at demographic data and recent election results suggest that the Republicans do not necessarily need significant gains among Hispanic voters to win the presidency. Yes, the next Republican presidential candidate will be making a big gamble if he or she doesn’t make meaningful gains among Hispanic voters, especially in Florida. But the Hispanic vote cannot single-handedly determine the presidency, as one could be forgiven for believing based on post-2012 election commentary….
Hispanic voters are disproportionately concentrated in noncompetitive states like Texas and California. This makes it even harder for the Republicans to claim the presidency by focusing on them, since there are relatively few Hispanic voters in the battleground states that determine who wins the Electoral College. Hispanics represent more than 5 percent of eligible voters in just three battlegrounds: Florida, Nevada and Colorado. As a result, the Republicans could have entirely erased Mr. Obama’s advantage among Hispanic voters and still lost the presidency in 2012, since Mr. Romney would have still lost states like Virginia and Ohio, where there are very few Hispanic voters.
Why, then, do so many assume that the Republican path to the presidency is through Hispanic voters? It was the result of an incorrect inference from Mr. Obama’s performance among white voters in national exit polls, which showed Mr. Obama losing the white vote by 20 points, worse than any Democrat since Walter Mondale in 1984. The implication was that Republicans had done all they could among white voters. The Republicans therefore had to make gains among Hispanic voters instead (another assumption being that Republicans couldn’t make big improvements among black voters).
But the national exit poll finding for white voters was misleading. Nearly all of Mr. Obama’s weakness was attributable to the South and Appalachia, where Mr. Obama suffered catastrophic losses compared with prior Democrats. Mr. Obama in fact performed quite well among white voters outside of the South, easily winning overwhelmingly white states like Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, which were all extremely competitive in one or both of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. The state exit polls most likely overstated Mr. Obama’s weakness among white voters as well, often supposing unrealistic levels of nonwhite turnout.
The next Republican presidential candidate could fare better than Mr. Romney among white voters by retaining Mr. Romney’s strength among Southern white voters and merely returning to Mr. Bush’s showing in many areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. The strong G.O.P. showing in the midterm elections was highly consistent with this pattern, with Southern Democrats barely outperforming Mr. Obama, and Republican candidates like Joni Ernst and Cory Gardner making big improvements over Mr. Romney’s performance among white voters, and particularly among white, rural voters without a college degree.
Improving among white Northern voters is the core of the G.O.P. route to victory, regardless of whether the party makes gains with Hispanic voters. If the Republicans can’t make gains among white Northerners and hold Mr. Romney’s share of white Southerners, it just won’t really matter whether they receive 25 or 40 percent of the Hispanic vote….
Hispanic voters are still important — and it’s easy to imagine a situation in which Republican gains among Hispanics are in fact necessary to win.
That situation turns on Florida. The Republicans don’t have an especially credible path to the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes. The easiest alternative might be for Republicans to flip Virginia and Ohio, scale the so-called Blue Wall in Pennsylvania, and then pick up 12 additional electoral votes from some combination of Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. The G.O.P. path to the presidency all but closes if the Democrats combine Florida and Pennsylvania.
Florida was the closest state of the 2012 presidential election, and Hispanics will most likely represent 19 percent of eligible voters in 2016, up from 17 percent in 2012.
Florida’s Hispanic voters are somewhat more conservative than those elsewhere, in part because of the state’s distinctive enclave of Cuban-Americans. But Democrats gained ground among Cuban-Americans in the Obama elections and the governor’s race this year. And Florida’s Hispanic population has moved toward the left over the last decade, as non-Cuban Hispanics have come into the state. For example, heavily Democratic Puerto Rican voters have transformed the once competitive Orlando-Kissimmee area.
Florida was so close in 2012 that even fairly modest Republican improvements would be enough to overcome Mr. Obama’s one-point margin of victory and the effects of four more years of demographic change, which will draw the white share of eligible voters down to 62 percent, from 65 percent in 2012.
But there are more reasons to question whether the G.O.P. has as much room to improve among white voters as it does elsewhere. Unlike in most of the battlegrounds, Mr. Obama really did fare unusually poorly among the [Florida] state’s white voters.
According to the exit polls, Mr. Obama lost white voters in Florida by 24 points. If he had merely lost them by the same 15-point margin as John Kerry, he would have won decisively — a fact that highlights the tremendous importance of Democratic improvements among Hispanic voters and the pace of demographic change in a state that Mr. Kerry lost by five points in 2004.
The [Florida] state’s white population was an unusual mix of nearly all of Mr. Obama’s weaknesses: older, Southern, Jewish. That same mix also means the state’s white voters might be more amenable to another Democratic candidate, like Hillary Clinton, who also represented a good number of the state’s New York expats when she was a senator last decade.”…
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Added:
June 1, 2020, “Tucker Carlson: “No One Has More Contempt For Donald Trump’s Voters Than Jared Kushner“,” Real Clear Politics, Ian Schwartz
“From the monologue on Monday night’s [June 1] edition of Carlson’s FOX News show:
“What Americans want most is an end to this chaos. They want their cities to be saved. They want this to stop, immediately. If the president doesn’t stop it, he will lose in November. The left will blame him for the atrocities they encouraged. Many voters will agree. Donald Trump is the president. Presidents save countries. That’s why we hire them. Some key advisors around Trump don’t seem to understand the gravity of this. “No matter what happens,: they’ll tell you, “our voters aren’t going anywhere.The trailer parks are rock solid. What choice do they have? They’ve got vote for us.”
Jared Kushner, for one, has made that point out loud. No one has more contempt for Trump’s voters than Kushner does, and no one expresses it more frequently.””…
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Added: Below, Jared Kushner on Time Magazine cover, Jan. 16, 2020: “The Family Business: The Unusual Power of Jared Kushner”
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Added: “According to the [Edison] exit poll, Trump did better in 2020 with every race and gender except white men [-5%].“ 11/3/20
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Added: Voters who'd been ignored or laughed at for decades took a chance on Trump:
11/9/2016: “Donald Trump delivered on his promise to flip the Democrats’ electoral stronghold on the industrial midwest….Across swing states–and others previously thought to be safe for Democrats–Trump colored dozens of counties red that hadn’t gone Republican in decades.” …
“These former Obama strongholds sealed the election for Trump," Washington Post
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