Lombardy graph among Nature reader comments disputing claim by Imperial College Math Dept. personnel that “closure of schools and national lockdowns” achieved “epidemic control”-Nature study, June 8, 2020

June 8, 2020, “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe,” nature.com, Seth Flaxman et al, Dept. of Mathematics, Imperial College, London, UK 

Authors say “epidemic control” was achieved in a group of European countries by using lockdown method, ie, “closure of schools and national lockdowns”(apparently by March 30, 2020 when this study was submitted): 

“Abstract: 

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus¹ (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closure of schools and national lockdowns. We study the impact of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of COVID-19 until the 4^th of May 2020 when lockdowns started to be lifted. [This report was “received on March 30, 2020.” Therefore it didn’t have observed data from May 4]....We estimate that, for all the countries we consider, current interventions have been sufficient to drive the reproduction number RtRt below 1 (probability RtRt< 1.0 is 99.9%) and achieve epidemic control.”… 

Authors admit major assumptions. Their model “assumes that changes [for the better] in the reproduction number [as of March 30] are an immediate response to interventions [in this case meaning “closure of schools and national lockdowns”] rather than gradual changes in behavior.” From the Abstract: 

“Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters such as the infection fatality rate, does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in the reproduction number [as of March 30] are an immediate response to interventions [ie, “closure of schools and national lockdowns”] rather than gradual changes in behavior.”…
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3 among reader comments to this June 8, 2020 study led by Imperial College of London Math Dept. personnel claiming “closure of schools and national lockdowns” achieved “epidemic control:” 

“Maurizio Rainisio- 21 days ago

If the lockdown [had] been as efficacious as claimed, lifting it (in Italy now for longer than 4 weeks [as of June 8]) would have caused some kind of visible effect. The Generalized Logistic that I fit to the Lombardy data, did not change a bit after early May. R2=0.999. [Data source, github, at bottom of chart]”
 

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“Pragmatist in another guise-Maurizio Rainisio- 21 days ago 

That is a chart wondrous to behold. The key point is of simple statistical summary of the data revealing much the same as complicated ‘black box’ and ‘take on trust’ attempts mechanistically to model disease progression.”

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“mosmosmos Arun Thirunavukarasu- 20 days ago 

Call me cynical, but given that this publication has been across the world media as ‘lockdown has saved 3m lives’, with very little critical analysis, [such as 6/8/2020, “Coronavirus: Lockdowns in Europe saved millions of lives," BBC] it almost seems this was designed to get out ahead of anything which would show what an unnecessary action a ‘full lockdown’ was. 

By the time it has been reviewed and retracted, it will barely be mentioned outside of the scientific community. 

The data laid out in front of you in the paper just plain contradicts the conclusions drawn.” 

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