Trump 40
Hillary 39
................
Including all 4 candidates:
Trump 39
Hillary 39
Johnson 7
Stein 2
August 26-Sept. 1, 2016, Reuters Ipsos national tracking poll, 1850 likely voters, online poll
9/2/16, "Trump catches up to Clinton, latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds," Reuters, Maurice Tamman, Chris Kahn
"Republican
presidential candidate Donald Trump has pulled...[ahead of] Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, erasing a substantial deficit as
he consolidated support among his party’s likely voters in recent weeks,
according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll released
Friday.
The poll
showed 40 percent of likely voters supporting Trump and 39 percent
backing Clinton for the week of Aug. 26 to Sept. 1. Clinton's support
has dropped steadily in the weekly tracking poll since Aug. 25,
eliminating what had been a eight-point lead for her....
In a separate question in
the Reuters/Ipsos poll that included alternative-party candidates,
Clinton and Trump were tied at 39 percent. Seven percent supported
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and two percent supported Jill Stein
of the Green Party....
Trump's
gains came as Republican support for their party’s candidate jumped by
six percentage points over the past two weeks, to about 78 percent....
The
Reuters/Ipsos poll is conducted online in English in all 50 states. The
latest poll surveyed 1,804 likely voters over the course of the week; it
had a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of three percent.
Different
polls have produced widely different results over the course of the
campaign. In part that's because some, like Reuters/Ipsos, have
attempted to measure the preferences of who's likely to vote, while
others have surveyed the larger pool of all registered voters. And even
those that survey likely voters have different ways of estimating who is
likely to cast a ballot.
Polling
aggregators, which calculate averages of major polls, have shown that
Clinton’s lead has been shrinking for the past few weeks. Those averages
put her advantage over Trump at between three and six percentage
points. Some of the more recent individual polls, however, have the race
even tighter.
Voters don't elect
the American president directly, of course, but through the Electoral
College, an assembly representing each of the 50 states and the District
of Columbia based on the number of legislators they have in Congress.
As of last Friday, the separate Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
polling project estimated Clinton was on track to win the Electoral
College, by about 332 votes to 206. Those numbers were scheduled to be
updated later Friday.
In recent
weeks, Clinton has come under renewed criticism over her handling of
classified information while serving as U.S. secretary of state, and her
family's charitable foundation has come under fresh scrutiny for the
donations it accepted while Clinton served in the Obama administration.
Meanwhile, Clinton hasn't been campaigning as actively as Trump.
TRUMP'S BUMP
Trump, meanwhile, has
reshuffled his campaign leadership and sought to broaden his appeal to
moderate Republicans and minorities. He recently suggested that he would
be a better president than Clinton for African Americans, and has taken
steps, including a meeting this week with Mexican President Enrique
Pena Nieto, to reach out to immigrants. It remains to be seen whether
those efforts will click....
In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, more than
20 percent of likely voters opted for a choice other than the two major
nominees, whether an alternative candidate, "would not vote" or
"unsure."...
And
while Trump has consolidated his support among Republicans, likely
voters are expressing an increasingly sour view of Clinton: The share of
likely voters with an unfavorable view of the former secretary of state
has grown to 57 percent, compared with Trump's 54 percent, her worst
showing on that metric in a month.
Larry
Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics,
said he remains convinced Clinton is ahead, somewhere in the range seen
among the polling aggregators.
“There
has been a closing that’s completely natural,” Sabato said. “Every four
years, you have two national party conventions that produce a bounce of
varying sizes. Clinton got a substantial bounce this year that lasted
for a full month. It’s usually gone around Labor Day, and by then we’ll
be where we should be, which is right around four to five points” for
Clinton."...
............
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