Trump up 6 points in North Carolina poll, Trump 46, Hillary 42, July 31-Aug. 2, 2016 Civitas poll, likely North Carolina voters-Civitas

Trump 46
Hillary 42
Johnson 6

7/31-8/2/16. Error margin 5%. 400 Likely North Carolina voters. (Trump up 6 points from June NC poll, then, 42 Hillary, 40 Trump) Composition of 8/2 poll: White 72, Black 18, Other 10. Registered party affiliation: 33R, 42D. Party affiliation: 30R, 41Ind., 27D. 50-50 male female.

8/3/16, "Civitas Releases Post-Conventions Survey of North Carolina Voters," nccivitas.org, Demi Dowdy, Raleigh 

"A new Civitas flash poll shows Trump leading Clinton in North Carolina the week following party conventions.

All relevant questions and results can be found below, and crosstabs are available here....

SurveyUSA interviewed 400 likely November voters from the entire state of North Carolina 07/31/16 through 08/02/16 using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using Registration-list Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle of Washington, DC. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device."

"Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to creating a North Carolina whose citizens enjoy liberty and prosperity derived from limited government, personal responsibility and civic engagement. Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters."

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Trump among self identified:

 

Republicans 91

Independents 34

Democrats 13 

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Hillary among self identified:

 

Democrats 85

Independents 41

Republicans 5 

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Trump support by race:

 

White 47

Black 32

 

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Hillary support by race:

 

White 38

Black 64 

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Comment: The Civitas poll states a 5% error margin. Subsets often have higher error margins. The Daily Caller apparently found the poll's higher error margin for at least one subset, noting an 11.5 error margin for the subset of Black voters: "There is a margin of error of plus or mius 11.5 percent for Trump's numbers with black voters. The most support a GOP presidential candidate has received from the black community in the last three decades is former President Gerald Ford’s 17 percent in 1976." The Daily Caller observed the 32% Black vote support for Trump in North Carolina is much higher than traditional Republicans have seen. As has been observed from day 1, Trump gets strong support from Republican voters but he's not in the Establishment Republican mold. Demographic changes for a GOP candidate also mean changes for the traditional Democrat candidate, in this case, Hillary, who gets 64% of Black voters in this poll. It's only one poll, of course, but the current political Establishment wasn't going to last forever. Trump has awakened all kinds of Americans to two facts: 

 

 

and endless refugees, and that those positions are the opposite of the best interests of the American people (or any human beings for that matter): 

 

"The elites of both parties are, as if by rote, extreme globalists. He (Trump) won the support of those who favored changing trade and immigration policies, which, it is increasingly obvious, do not favor the tangible interests of the average American. He won the backing of those alarmed by a new surge of political correctness, an informal national speech code that seeks to render many legitimate political opinions unsayable....In foreign policy, the liberal interventionists who would staff a Hillary administration line up seamlessly with neoconservatives in support of continued American "hegemony."....The core of Trump’s supporters are the political descendants of what had been the backbone of the Democratic New Deal coalition: working-class whites, politically strongest in the South and flyover states. On the triad of trade, immigration, and foreign policy, these voters are nationalist, not globalist—they would limit America’s intervention in foreign conflicts and subject the importation of products and people from the rest of the world to a more rigorous is-it-good-for-us test. (And by “us” they mean themselves, not the Fortune 500.)...Meanwhile the Democrats under Hillary Clinton have solidified their identity as a party of American's top and bottom, revolving around the dual axis of urban coastal elites who benefit from their ties to a global economy and poorer ethnic minorities....The Democratic coalition, perhaps now best exemplified by the twin poles of Goldman Sachs and Black Lives Matter, is inherently unstable....The Clinton wing of the Democrats defends the free trade deals and has now joined much of the hard left in opposing meaningful enforcement of America’s immigration laws. (Before his campaign started, Bernie Sanders assailed open-borders advocacy as a right-wing “Koch Brothers” argument, but the logic of his party’s politics drove him to embrace amnesty and non-enforcement.) On the left, the argument that national boundaries are themselves, like racism or sexism, an arbitrary and unjust form of discrimination is made with growing frequency....While neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have fully jelled as nationalist or globalist parties, that is the clear direction of their evolution....“Border wars" have replaced "culture wars" as the critical dividing line between the parties. That the most violent of recent anti-Trump rallies have featured Mexican flags would seem to confirm his analysis. In one form or another, this nationalist-versus-globalist division is being reproduced in almost every country in the West....The issues that have elevated Trump are not particularly new. Lasch described an American establishment increasingly contemptuous of Middle America, a “new aristocracy of brains [who] tend to congregate on the coast, turning their back on the heartland and cultivating ties with the international market in fast-moving money, glamour, fashion and popular culture. It is a question whether they think of themselves as American at all.” For Lasch, this “global bazaar” of multiculturalism, which could be savored without meaningful social obligation or commitment, suited the new elites to perfection."... 

 

6/27/16, "Why Trump Wins," "He knows border wars have replaced culture wars." The American Conservative, by Scott McConnell 

 

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8/4/16, "SHOCK POLL: Trump At Over 30 Percent With Black Vote in North Carolina," Daily Caller, Alex Pfeiffer

 

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Added: North Carolina happens to be the home of famous Trump supporters, Diamond and Silk: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Above, Dec. 4, 2015, Diamond, Silk, and Trump at Trump rally in Raleigh, North Carolina:

 

"December 4, 2015: At a campaign rally in Raleigh, NC, YouTube stars and Trump supporters Lynnette Hardaway and Rochelle Richardson (aka Diamond and Silk) of the popular YouTube channel 'The Viewers View', join Donald Trump on stage!" 

Diamond and Silk appear at 59:19 in full video
.........  
"Streamed live on Dec 4, 2015"
..........
"December 4, 2015: GOP Presidential candidate and front-runner Donald Trump was in Raleigh, NC tonight for a campaign rally. Mr. Trump spoke for about a half hour and then took questions from the audience....The real highlight of the event was when Diamond and Silk from 'The Viewers View' YouTube channel joined Mr. Trump on stage!" And Diamond and Silk twitter

 

 

 

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