Trump 37
Cruz 20
Rubio 20
Carson 8
Kasich 6
2/25/16, "Trump Dominates in Bloomberg Poll of 'SEC Primary' States," Bloomberg, John McCormick
"The
poll, conducted by Purple Strategies, is a remarkable show of strength
for a twice-divorced New Yorker in Bible Belt states home to some of the
nation's most conservative voters."
"Donald Trump holds a substantial lead in the southern region where
Republican voters have their say on March 1, displaying remarkable
strength for a twice-divorced New Yorker in Bible Belt states home to
some of the nation's most conservative voters.
An online Bloomberg
Politics poll shows the billionaire is backed by 37 percent of likely
Republican presidential primary voters in the seven states surveyed,
while Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas are tied at
20 percent.
Trump beats both Rubio and Cruz in hypothetical,
one-on-one matchups in the region, weakening the argument that the
front-runner's march toward the nomination would be slowed if it were
only a two-man race.
Read the questions and methodology of the poll, conducted by Purple Strategies, here.
The real estate mogul and former reality television star is also more
popular in the region than Pope Francis and he gets more support than
the pontiff when it comes to their differing views on the Christianity
of building walls, including among a majority of Catholics, after poll
respondents were read the two men's words.
The findings
demonstrate the broad-based nature of Trump's support and how primary
voters -- even conservatives and evangelicals who might find issues with
his personal history -- have accepted him, making it harder for his
rivals to take him down.
The front-runner is stronger than both
Cruz and Rubio on questions about authenticity, protecting against
terrorism, ability to win a general election and having a positive
vision for the future, while he's weaker on questions about being a
committed Christian and solid conservative.
"These voters rate
Trump as the least conservative and the least committed Christian of the
three top candidates, and yet he still leads," said pollster Doug
Usher, who led the survey. "He's turning everything we thought we knew
about Republican primary voters on its head."
Conducted Feb. 22-24
by Washington-based Purple Strategies, the poll included the so-called
"SEC Primary" states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee,
Texas and Virginia. Nicknamed after the southeastern collegiate sports
conference, they're among the 11 states that will award Republican
delegates Tuesday from primaries and caucuses.
The online survey was done using a representative panel of likely
Republican primary voters in those states and has a margin of error of
plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The poll findings reported
the candidates' combined support across all seven states, but that isn't
how Tuesday's elections will play out. The March 1 contests -- like
those held in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada -- will
award delegates on a proportional basis, so winning even some of the
vote will translate to winning some of the 595 delegates at stake.
The
rules change starting in the contests March 15, when states will start
awarding delegates on a winner-take-all basis. A total of 1,237 are
needed to win the Republican nomination.
Following last week's
rare criticism of a U.S. presidential candidate by a pope, the poll
found that Trump came out on top among likely Republican primary voters
in the seven states.
The issue arose just two days before last
week's South Carolina primary, when the pope criticized Trump's
proposal to build a wall along the Mexican border and called such
actions "not Christian." Trump responded by calling the pope's statement
"disgraceful," before later softening his tone.
After they were
read statements on the topic made by both men, 64 percent said they were
inclined to agree with Trump, while 15 percent sided with the pope.
Overall,
Trump is viewed more favorably than the pope among the likely
Republican primary voters in the seven states, with 60 percent seeing
the billionaire in a positive light and 54 percent viewing the pontiff
that way. Rubio scores a higher favorable rating than both of them, at
65 percent.
After the top three candidates, support falls off
significantly. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is backed in the region
by 8 percent, while Ohio Governor John Kasich is at 6 percent.
When
first and second choices are combined, the race is slightly closer. But
Trump beats both Rubio and Cruz in one-on-one matchups, with Rubio
getting the closest at 48 percent to 44 percent. Trump wins a contest
with Cruz, 49 percent to 40 percent. If the race were between only Rubio
and Cruz, Rubio wins 45 percent to 40 percent.
The race remains fluid in the southern region. More than half -- 53
percent -- say they could still be persuaded to support someone other
than their first-choice candidate.
While the poll's overall
findings are strong for Trump, there are some negatives. Among the five
remaining Republican candidates, he's picked the most often by the
poll's participants as someone they could never support, highlighting
his polarizing nature even within his own party. A fifth said they could
never back Trump, above the 17 percent who say that for Cruz and 10
percent for Rubio.
Only a slim majority of the likely Republican
primary voters are supportive of Senate Majority Leader Mitch
McConnell's position in opposition to holding confirmation hearings
prior to November's election for a President Barack Obama appointee to
fill the spot of deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.
Taking
no action on a nominee and allowing the next president to name a
replacement is supported by 51 percent, compared to 40 percent who say
hearings and a vote should be held.
At 24 percent, Trump is the
most trusted by likely Republican primary voters in the seven states to
appoint a new justice, followed by Cruz at 22 percent. Four in 10 say
choosing a new justice isn't a factor in their vote, while 20 percent
say it's a major factor and 36 percent say it’s a minor one.
With
former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg considering an independent
presidential bid, the poll tested his favorability ratings among likely
Republican primary voters in the seven states. More than half -- 56
percent -- had an unfavorable view of him, while 18 percent had a
positive take on him and 26 percent didn't know enough about him to form
an opinion.
Bloomberg was a three-term mayor of New York and is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News."
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