Peer reviewed study finds CO2 lags air and sea temperatures, 8 data sets, Jan. 1980-Dec. 2011-Global Planetary Change. Juliet Eilperin, will you stand with all powerful government or will you stand with the people?

Jan. 2013, "The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature," Global and Planetary Change, Ole Humlum^{a, b, ,} ,Kjell Stordahl^c, Jan-Erik Solheim^d

"Fig. 1. Monthly global atmospheric CO₂
(NOOA; green), monthly global sea surface temperature (HadSST2; blue stippled) and monthly global surface air temperature (HadCRUT3; red), since January 1980. Last month shown is December 2011."

"Abstract

"Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO₂ variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO₂, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO₂. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets:  

• 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO₂ data, 
• 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data,  
• 3) GISS surface air temperature data,  
• 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 
• 5) HadSST2 sea surface data,  
• 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series,  
• 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO₂, and  
• 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. 

Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO₂ always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO₂ and temperature is found for  

CO₂ lagging 

•  11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 

• 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and 

• about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. 

The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ is high, but do not explain all observed changes."







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