Trump at 33 has commanding lead among Tennessee Republican voters, Jan. 15-20, 2016, MTSU poll. Trump also leads among independent voters at 26%. Early voting in Tennessee begins Feb. 10. 'As of now, overall, the big takeaway is that it's Trump in this state'

Trump 32.7
Cruz 16.5
Carson 6.6
Rubio 5.3
Christie 2.4
Bush 1.6
Huckabee .9

Jan. 15-20, 2016, 600 registered Tennessee voters, live telephone interviews. 33% of self identified Republican voters said Trump was their choice to win 2016 presidential election. Error margin 4%.

1/28/16, "New poll: Trump, Clinton lead big in Tennessee," Tennessean, Joey Garrison

"Donald Trump has amassed a commanding lead among Republican voters in Tennessee, according to a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University, and the state's GOP primary has boiled down to race between he and Ted Cruz.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton holds a significant lead over Bernie Sanders among Tennessee Democrats, though her disapproval rating tops all presidential candidates in the state.

The poll, released on Wednesday, is the first survey of the presidential race in Tennesse to come out since a Vanderbilt Univeristy poll in December found Ben Carson leading here. Tennesseans vote on March 1 as part of a so-called "SEC Primary" that features voting in seven Southern states. Early voting in Tennessee begins on Feb. 10.
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The new MTSU poll shows Trump the top choice of 33 percent of registered Tennessee voters who identified themselves as Republicans, followed by Cruz, who is backed by 17 percent. Carson is the top candidate among 7 percent of Tennessee Republicans. The trio is trailed by Marco Rubio at 5 percent; Chris Christie at 2 percent; Jeb Bush at 2 percent; and Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Rand Paul with each at less than 1 percent.

The poll found 28 percent of Tennessee Republicans said they are undecided.

"As of now, overall, the big takeaway is that it's Trump in this state," said Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at MTSU. "He's certainly appears to be in the lead, particularly among Republicans, and relatively strong support from independents — with the important caveat that there's a lot of polarization regarding him."...

The poll is a snapshot of 600 registered voters in Tennessee-Republicans, Democrats and independents-taken from Jan. 15 through Jan. 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

This is a developing story. Check back at Tennessean.com for a more in-depth analysis of the poll data." Image above by AP
 
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1/28/16, "Trump leads Cruz among Tennessee Republican voters, but many still undecided," MTSU poll, MTSU.org, Ken Blake, Murfreesboro, Tenn.

"Tennessee’s Republican primary is down to a race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, with Trump holding an advantage but many party voters still undecided, the latest MTSU Poll shows....

“We asked two types of questions about the presidential race to get a sense of where potential voters stand,” said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. 

“First, we asked registered voters to name, off the tops of their heads, the one candidate they would most like to see win the election and the one candidate they would least like to see win the election. Second, we asked whether they would favor or oppose each of several specific, current candidates running."...

The poll of 600 registered Tennessee voters was conducted Jan. 15-20 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Voters in Tennessee and 10 other states will go to the polls March 1 in the so-called “SEC primary.”

Trump leads among Republicans, independents

When asked to name the one person they would most like to win the 2016 presidential election, 33 percent of self-described Republican voters named Trump. Cruz came in second, chosen by a significantly smaller 17 percent of Republicans. But 28 percent of GOP voters said they did not know who they would like to see win....

Trump also posted the best numbers among self-described independent voters, with 26 percent naming Trump as the candidate they’d most like to see win. Democrat Sanders, the next-most-popular candidate, came it at a significantly lower 10 percent.

But 30 percent of independents were undecided, and the rest chose candidates who pulled in only single-digit percentages....

Clinton solid among Democrats but least-liked candidate statewide

Statewide opposition to Trump, though notable, was only half as strong as statewide opposition to Clinton. Fifty percent of Tennessee voters – most of them Republicans – named her as the candidate they’d least like to see win the presidency. But 47 percent of self-described Democratic voters in the sample picked Clinton as the candidate they’d most like to see win the presidency. A significantly smaller 15 percent named Sanders....

Methodology

Telephone interviews for the poll were completed by Issues and Answers Network Inc. from among a random sample of registered Tennessee voters age 18 and over. Data were collected using Tennessee statewide voter registration sample of 60 percent landline and 40 percent cell phones. The average interview length was 12 minutes. Quotas by gender and Grand Region were implemented. Data were weighted based on respondent age to ensure the data represent Tennessee registered voters. The survey’s error margin of 4 percentage points indicates one can be 95 percent confident that the actual population figure lies within 4 percentage points (in either direction) of the poll result. Error margins for subgroups can be larger, depending on the subgroup’s size."

"Source: MTSU Poll. Get the data." [Link won't copy, goes to box offering Microsoft Excel download.]

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