George Soros gave Ivanka's husband's business a $250 million credit line in 2015 per WSJ. Soros is also an investor in Jared's business.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Beatings continue: 1Q 2016 US growth drops unexpectedly to .5%, slowest in 2 yrs., business investment biggest drop in 7 years, US export skid blamed on currency valuation-BBC

4/28/16, "US economic growth slows to 0.5% in first quarter of 2016," BBC
..........
"US economic growth slowed to an annual pace of 0.5% during the first three months of the year.

That was a sharp fall from the 1.4% rate of growth in the last quarter of 2015 and the slowest pace in two years.
.........  
The slowdown, which was bigger than most economists forecast, has been blamed on a fall in domestic demand and a strong dollar that has put a brake on exports.
..........  
With shoppers buying less, businesses have been reluctant to order new stock.
.........  
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, increased at a rate of 1.9%, down from 2.4% in the previous quarter.
.........  
Business investment fell by 5.9% - the biggest quarterly decline [in 7 yrs.] since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. Oil and gas exploration fell by a record 86% as energy companies cut back on spending following the dramatic slide in oil prices.
..........  
Although cheaper oil has given consumers more spare cash, it has also cut the profits of businesses dependent on the oil industry. Most forecasters predict the US economy will bounce back in the next quarter, but Chris Williamson of Markit said his company's own surveys showed only a weak recovery. 
.........  
"Worryingly, the surveys indicate that the malaise affecting the US economy has extended into the second quarter, albeit with the pace of expansion picking up slightly to 0.8%. The surveys also show weakness spreading from manufacturing to services in recent months."
........  
Despite the economy slowing, unemployment fell below 5% in January, and Friday's jobs report is expected to show steady growth in employment numbers. 
..........  
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve said that "labour market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed"."






............................

Verdict for Fiorina from California Republicans was most humbling. Just 4 years after she spent 10s of millions to impress them, fewer than half Calif. GOP polled would consider voting for her-LA Times poll, 8/29-9/8/2015

Trump 24
Carson 18
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Rubio 5
Fiorina 5
Walker 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Huckabee 2
Christie 1

USC/LA Times Poll of Registered California Republicans, Aug. 29-Sept. 8, 2015 (Sa-Tu). Only 5 points for Fiorina who "spent tens of millions to impress" Californians just 4 years. ago-LA Times:

9/13/2015, "California Republicans echo U.S. trends, favoring outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson," LA Times, Cathleen Decker 


  











 






Added: How I got to above crosstabs chart:

1. "New University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times poll," linked in above LA Times article in parag. 11.
2. Scroll to "Key Findings"
3. Click on USC Dornsife/LA Times Crosstabs
4. An Adobe Acrobat window appears


........................................................

9/12/15, "California Presidential Poll," LA Times

.....................

"The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll was conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 8 among a random sample of 1,500 registered California voters, including 422 eligible to participate in the Republican primary, which is open only to registered Republicans, and 819 eligible to participate in the Democratic primary, which is open to registered Democrats and voters who decline to state a party. The margin of error for the Democratic subsample is +/- 3.6 percentage points. The margin of error for the Republican subsample is +/- 5.3 percentage points."



 



......................

Trump has 71% chance to win California Republican Primary on June 7th-538.com

4/27/16, "2016 Primary Forecasts," projects.538.com (7:04pm)

"The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily."

"California Republican Primary"

"According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 71% chance of winning the California primary.
















Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below [at link]. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.

Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .  













The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
.........
For the California Republican primary, we’ve collected 16 polls. Here they are [at link], ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages."...

 


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Importance of immigration issue distinguishes Trump from Cruz voters. Is 'Most Important Issue' to Trump voters, much less so to Cruz voters. Missouri 32 pt. gap, So. Carolina 26 pt. gap, No. Carolina 28 pt. gap, Florida 48 pt. gap, Ohio 55 pt. gap. Wisconsin exception: Immigration concern zero among voters there for any candidate-CNN Exit Polls

Tues., March 15, 2016, "Missouri Republican Exit Polls," CNN













Above: 63% of Trump voters say immigration is most important issue. Only 31% of Cruz voters say so, a 32 point gap













Above: Missouri "Falling behind," 48-32 Trump Cruz, 16 point gap

................ 
Sat., Feb. 20, 2016, "South Carolina Republican Primary Exit Polls," CNN












Above, Immigration: 51-25, Trump-Cruz (26 point gap)
Economy/jobs: 36-15, Trump Cruz (21 point gap)


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March 15, 2016, "North Carolina Republican Exit Polls," CNN












Above: 59-31, Trump-Cruz, Immigration most important. (28 point gap)













Above: North Carolina "Falling Behind" 48-31, Trump-Cruz. 17 point gap

...............

3/15/16, "Florida Republican Exit Polls," CNN












60% of Trump voters say "immigration" is most important issue. Only 12% of Cruz voters say so, a 48 point gap.
More T-C gaps: Economy/jobs, 43-13, 30 points; Terrorism, 48-19, 29 points

...............

March 15, 2016, "Ohio Republican Exit Polls," CNN












Above, 68% of Trump voters say Immigration is most important issue. Only 13% of Cruz voters say so. 55 pt. gap.












Above, 51% of Ohio Trump voters "falling behind." Only 12% of Cruz voters are. 39 point gap.

==========  

Tues., April 5, 2016, "Wisconsin Republican Exit Polls," CNN

Immigration apparently not a concern to Wisconsin Republican primary voters. "N/A" for individual candidates in Exit poll:






 

Above, Immigration not "most important issue" to Wisconsin voters.












Above, on Trade with other countries, 54% of Cruz voters say it creates more US jobs, only 28% of Trump voters say so. They're about even that trade takes US jobs away.

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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Highlights from Trump Foreign Policy Speech, 4/27/16, at Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC: 'We will no longer surrender this country, or its people, to the false song of globalism. The nation-state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony....I will work with our allies to reinvigorate Western values and institutions'

Excerpts from Donald Trump Foreign Policy Speech in Washington, DC at the Center for the National Interest, 4/27/16

4/27/16, "Donald J. Trump Foreign Policy Speech," DonaldJTrump.com

"Since the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union, we’ve lacked a coherent foreign policy.

One day we’re bombing Libya and getting rid of a dictator to foster democracy for civilians, the next day we are watching the same civilians suffer while that country falls apart.

We’re a humanitarian nation. But the legacy of the Obama-Clinton interventions will be weakness, confusion, and disarray.

We have made the Middle East more unstable and chaotic than ever before.

We left Christians subject to intense persecution and even genocide.

Our actions in Iraq, Libya and Syria have helped unleash ISIS.

And we’re in a war against radical Islam, but President Obama won’t even name the enemy!

Hillary Clinton also refuses to say the words “radical Islam,” even as she pushes for a massive increase in refugees....


To all our friends and allies, I say America is going to be strong again. America is going to be a reliable friend and ally again.

We’re going to finally have a coherent foreign policy based upon American interests, and the shared interests of our allies.

We are getting out of the nation-building business, and instead focusing on creating stability in the world.

Our moments of greatest strength came when politics ended at the water’s edge....


Finally, we must develop a foreign policy based on American interests.

Businesses do not succeed when they lose sight of their core interests and neither do countries.

Look at what happened in the 1990s. Our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were attacked and seventeen brave sailors were killed on the USS Cole. And what did we do? It seemed we put more effort into adding China to the World Trade Organization which has been a disaster for the United States – than into stopping Al Qaeda....

Our foreign policy goals must be based on America’s core national security interests, and the following will be my priorities.

In the Middle East, our goals must be to defeat terrorists and promote regional stability, not radical change. We need to be clear-sighted about the groups that will never be anything other than enemies.

And we must only be generous to those that prove they are our friends.

We desire to live peacefully and in friendship with Russia and China. We have serious differences with these two nations, and must regard them with open eyes. But we are not bound to be adversaries. We should seek common ground based on shared interests. Russia, for instance, has also seen the horror of Islamic terrorism.

I believe an easing of tensions and improved relations with Russia – from a position of strength – is possible. Common sense says this cycle of hostility must end. Some say the Russians won’t be reasonable. I intend to find out. If we can’t make a good deal for America, then we will quickly walk from the table.

Fixing our relations with China is another important step towards a prosperous century. China respects strength, and by letting them take advantage of us economically, we have lost all of their respect. 

We have a massive trade deficit with China, a deficit we must find a way, quickly, to balance.

A strong and smart America is an America that will find a better friend in China. We can both benefit or we can both go our separate ways.


After I am elected President, I will also call for a summit with our NATO allies, and a separate summit with our Asian allies. In these summits, we will not only discuss a rebalancing of financial commitments, but take a fresh look at how we can adopt new strategies for tackling our common challenges.

For instance, we will discuss how we can upgrade NATO’s outdated mission and structure – grown out of the Cold War – to confront our shared challenges, including migration and Islamic terrorism....


My goal is to establish a foreign policy that will endure for several generations.

That is why I will also look for talented experts with new approaches, and practical ideas, rather than surrounding myself with those who have perfect resumes but very little to brag about except responsibility for a long history of failed policies and continued losses at war.

Finally, I will work with our allies to reinvigorate Western values and institutions. Instead of trying to spread “universal values” that not everyone shares, we should understand that strengthening and promoting Western civilization and its accomplishments will do more to inspire positive reforms around the world than military interventions..

These are my goals, as president.

I will seek a foreign policy that all Americans, whatever their party, can support, and which our friends and allies will respect and welcome.

The world must know that we do not go abroad in search of enemies, that we are always happy when old enemies become friends, and when old friends become allies.

To achieve these goals, Americans must have confidence in their country and its leadership again.

Many Americans must wonder why our politicians seem more interested in defending the borders of foreign countries than their own.

Americans must know that we are putting the American people first again. On trade, on immigration, on foreign policy – the jobs, incomes and security of the American worker will always be my first priority.

No country has ever prospered that failed to put its own interests first. Both our friends and enemies put their countries above ours and we, while being fair to them, must do the same.

We will no longer surrender this country, or its people, to the false song of globalism. The nation-state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony. I am skeptical of international unions that tie us up and bring America down, and will never enter America into any agreement that reduces our ability to control our own affairs.

NAFTA, as an example, has been a total disaster for the U.S. and has emptied our states of our manufacturing and our jobs. Never again. Only the reverse will happen. We will keep our jobs and bring in new ones. There will be consequences for companies that leave the U.S. only to exploit it later.

Under a Trump Administration, no American citizen will ever again feel that their needs come second to the citizens of foreign countries.

I will view the world through the clear lens of American interests. I will be America’s greatest defender and most loyal champion. We will not apologize for becoming successful again, but will instead embrace the unique heritage that makes us who we are.

The world is most peaceful, and most prosperous, when America is strongest.

America will continually play the role of peacemaker.

We will always help to save lives and, indeed, humanity itself
. But to play that role, we must make America strong again.

We must make America respected again. And we must make America great again.

If we do that, perhaps this century can be the most peaceful and prosperous the world has ever known. Thank you."


...................
 

Shabby Sheik from Shoddy Arabia hits Manhattan singles scene. Meet Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd-NY Post front page, Wed., 4/27/16






















Wed., 4/27/16, NY Post front cover, "Shabby Sheik," "Rich prince of Shoddy Arabia parties in NY"

Inset: "Odds are this schlubby guy in Dad jeans and sandals didn't turn heads on the singles scene at a Chelsea hot spot--but did we mention his family is worth billions? Meet Saudi Prince Adbul Aziz bin Fahd."


This slob could buy you

4/26/16, "This slob could buy you," NY Post, 9:39pm

"He wasn’t Manhattan’s typical clubgoer — a portly and disheveled man in dad jeans and sandals with a cane, sipping soda through a bendy straw.

But unbeknownst to the glitterati partying at the swanky Chelsea hot spot Avenue on Monday night, the shabby man was actually Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd, whose fortune likely eclipses $10 billion.

The 43-year-old prince was completely out of his traditional garb for a night on the town in the Big Apple.

He is the youngest and assumed to be favorite son of the late King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, who died in 2005 at the age of 82 after a 23-year reign over Saudi Arabia.

The royal is best known for his playboy image and extravagant lifestyle in which he bounces around the globe with his large posse.

He rolled up to the exclusive two-story club on 10th Avenue near West 17th Street with about 15 Mercedes-Benz sedans — most of which were only occupied by a driver, sources said.

The dowdy prince was surrounded by an entourage of private security guards as he schlepped into the nightspot favored by Manhattan’s elite.

Bin Fahd, who in 2010 married Al Anoud bint Faisal Al Saud, the granddaughter of the late Sultan bin Abdulaziz, owns a $1 billion property portfolio in the United States alone.

He once left a tip of 60,000 British pounds at a restaurant on the Mediterranean island of Ibiza, according to the Daily Mail.

The prince was the victim of a $300,000 heist in Paris in August 2014. His 10-car convoy, full of armed bodyguards, was on the way to a private jet at Le Bourget airport when two black BMWs ambushed the motorcade.

A gang of thieves toting AK-47s hijacked the lead Mercedes van holding three aides to the prince and a briefcase with 250,000 euros, documents and the prince’s medication.

Bin Fahd was riding in a separate car during the raid and no one was injured. The BMWs and the Mercedes were found torched nearby, and the prince’s kidnapped aides were released. A year later, nine people were arrested in connection with the infamous heist.

The prince also made headlines when a member of his entourage was accused of raping one of two women who fell asleep in the man’s suite at the Plaza hotel after a night of partying in January 2010.

Mustapha Ouanes was ultimately found guilty for the crime and sentenced in 2012 in Manhattan Criminal Court to 10 years in prison for the rape of a 26-year-old bartender.

For more than four months before the alleged attack, bin Fahd stayed in a fourth-floor suite in the historic hotel — one floor below where the rape took place, court testimony revealed."

=================

Two links to above story, Vanity Fair, Daily Mail:  

"Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd doesn’t look very royal stepping out on the town Monday night.Photo: Splash" …

This Saudi Prince Wearing Sandals to a Nightclub Is the Ultimate Power Move

This Saudi Prince Wearing Sandals to a Nightclub Is the Ultimate Power Move

Vanity Fair · 6 hours ago
"But, by all accounts, the guy does have a lot of help. The man is Abdul Aziz bin Fahd, the New York Post reports, a" …

Sheik with a shake: Saudi prince worth $10BILLION dresses (a long way) down to sneak into swanky Manhattan nightspot

Sheik with a shake: Saudi prince worth $10BILLION dresses (a long way) down to sneak into swanky Manhattan … 

Daily Mail · 7 minutes ago

"But Saudi prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd looked far from regal on Monday night as he was spotted in the Big Apple" …

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Trump foreign policy speech: We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism. No American citizen will ever again feel that their needs come second to the citizens of a foreign country-4/27/16 Foreign Policy speech hosted by Center for National Interest

"We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism." Trump speech hosted by the Center for National Interest in D.C.

4/27/16, "Trump calls for US foreign policy shake-up, no more 'nation-building'," Fox News

"Donald Trump, in a highly anticipated speech on the heels of his primary-contest sweep across the Northeast, called Wednesday for a drastic shake-up in America’s foreign policy – including “getting out of the nation-building business” and demanding NATO allies pay their “fair share” or be left to “defend themselves.”

“It’s time to shake the rust off America’s foreign policy,” the Republican presidential front-runner said.

In what was billed as a major policy speech, Trump called for an “America first” approach. To that theme, Trump voiced skepticism toward international deals like NAFTA and said a Trump administration would not allow the U.S. to enter agreements that reduce America’s ability to control its own affairs. He panned what he described as the “false song of globalism.” 

The speech, read from a teleprompter and focused on policy, was also heavy on campaign-season slams against President Obama and Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state. He called their policies “aimless” and destructive, and criticized them for not using the term “radical Islam.” 

“We went from mistakes in Iraq to Egypt to Libya to President Obama’s line in the sand in Syria,” Trump said. He said this has allowed the Islamic State to thrive -- but said, going forward, the U.S. is out of “nation-building.

Rather, he said the focus will be on restoring stability, and containing the spread of radical Islam. “ISIS will be gone if I’m elected president,” he claimed.

Meanwhile, he stood by his controversial stance on NATO allies, complaining only four other member countries besides the U.S. spend the minimum 2 percent of GDP on defense.

“The countries we are defending must pay for the cost of this defenseand if not, the U.S. must be prepared to let these countries defend themselves. We have no choice.” 

Trump said, if elected president, he would call for a summit with NATO allies and a separate summit with Asian allies to discuss common challenges – including tackling migration and Islamic terrorism. He broadly called for the U.S. to project strength – and better understand who its friends and enemies are. Regarding Russia and China, he said “we are not bound to be adversaries.” Trump sought to demonstrate his foreign policy chops as he tries to present a more presidential image – while increasingly turning his attention on the campaign trail to a general election battle he presumes will involve him and Clinton.  The billionaire businessman declared himself the “presumptive nominee” Tuesday night, after winning primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania and Maryland. He hasn’t shelved the trash talk and provocative language on the campaign, not yet anyway – repeatedly accusing Clinton of playing the “woman card” and mocking remaining GOP rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich....

Trump delivered the speech at Washington's stately Mayflower Hotel, even employing the rare use of a teleprompter....

While Trump's speech marks a departure from his usual rally routine of speaking off the cuff, consulting only hand-scrawled notes, his remarks in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee last month provided a test run of sorts, with Trump speaking from a prepared speech using a teleprompter."

"The Associated Press contributed to this report."

================
.................. 

"We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism"...

4/27/16, "Donald Trump's foreign policy: 'America first'," CNN,



"We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism," Trump said, explaining that he is skeptical of international agreements "that tie us up and bring America down."" 

Instead, Trump vowed not to enter into any international accords that would reduce the U.S.'s "ability to control our own affairs."
.........
.........
And he laid out stringent circumstances under which he would deploy U.S. troops into combat.
.........
"I will not send our finest into battle unless necessary -- and I mean absolutely necessary," Trump said. "And I will do so only if we have a plan for victory with a capital V."
.......
Trump was introduced by Zalmay Khalilzad, President George W. Bush's former ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the permanent representative to the United Nations.... 
............
Trump frequently referenced his negotiating abilities, calling himself "the only one" who can fix the country's problems. And he drew analogies between foreign policy and business. "Businesses do not succeed when they lose sight of their core interests and neither do countries," Trump said.
............
The real estate mogul also expanded on his vision for a deeper American partnership with China and Russia, which have been viewed as on-again-off-again adversaries of the U.S.
...........
"We are not bound to be adversaries. We should seek common ground based on shared interests," Trump said of the two countries, though he has often railed against Beijing during the presidential race.

While Trump said "a strong and smart America is an America that will find a better friend in China," Trump also did not paint the partnership as necessary, noting that "we can both go our separate ways, if need be."
.............
He closed by expanding on his trademark slogan: "We must make America respected again. We must make America truly wealthy again and we must, we have to and we will make America great again," he declared. "And if we do that, perhaps this century can be the most peaceful and prosperous the world has ever ever known."...
..........
Trump's discussions of foreign policy on the campaign trail have primarily focused on trade, with the billionaire candidate calling for the U.S. to renegotiate what he deems are "stupid" and unbalanced free trade deals. Trump has also called for imposing a 35% tariff on goods imported by American companies who outsource their manufacturing overseas.

Trump's most extensive remarks on foreign policy have come not in speeches on the campaign trail, but in interviews, including a pair of lengthy exchanges with The New York Times and The Washington Post's editorial board late last month. [Also,  "Donald J. Trump Remarks at AIPAC," 3/21/16.]
..........
Trump's speech Wednesday is the second time the real estate mogul has read a prepared speech. Trump first used the teleprompters he has so often derided on the campaign trail late last month when he addressed the annual gathering of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee."
...........
============

4/27/16, "US election 2016: Trump details 'America First' foreign plan," BBC

"New talks would be sought with the United States' allies in Nato, Mr Trump said, to try and reshape the organisation's structure and discuss a "rebalancing" of US financing towards it.

Mr Trump said he would also aim to hold talks with Russia to try and establish common ground, possibly over Islamic extremism.

"Some say the Russians can't be reasonable," he said. "I intend to find out."

China, he said, "respects strength, and by letting them take advantage of us economically like they are doing, we are losing all their respect". He said he would seek to "fix our relations with China" but did not suggest how.

On US allies

"The countries we defend must pay for the cost of this defence," he said. "If not, the US must be prepared to let these countries defend themselves. We have no choice.""...

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4/27/16, "Trump's Big Foreign Policy Speech: 3 Good, 3 Bad Things from Libertarian Perspective," Brian Doherty, reason.com, 

"Donald Trump's bigthink foreign policy speech today, hosted by the Center for National Interest in D.C., was only the second major address he's given from a teleprompter. (The first was also foreign policy related, to AIPAC back in March.)"...



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I'm the daughter of an Eagle Scout and World War II Air Force pilot born in Brooklyn, finally settling in New Jersey.