George Soros gave Ivanka's husband's business a $250 million credit line in 2015 per WSJ. Soros is also an investor in Jared's business.

Friday, January 29, 2016

538 projects Trump 48, Cruz 41, for Feb. 1, 2016 Iowa Republican Caucus as of Jan. 28, 2016

1/28/16, "2016 Primary Forecasts," 538.com, fivethirtyeight.com

"The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily."

"Iowa Republican Caucuses"

"According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

















Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges.



















Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages. .  








The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.
.........
For the Iowa Republican caucuses, we’ve collected 79 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages."...

Ten recent Iowa polls listed

PPP (Trump +8), 
Monmouth University (Trump +7), 
Marist College (Trump +7), 
Quinnipiac University (Trump +2), 
American Research Group (Trump +7), 
YouGov (Trump +5), 
Fox News (Trump +11), 
Douglas Fulmer and Associates (Cruz +2), 
Emerson College (Trump +10), 
Opinion Research Corp (Trump +11).


Images from 538.com 


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NY Times on Republican debate from Iowa: Trump is 'Republican campaign's great and sobering lesson to the country, telling us things about its discontents that we didn't properly understand.' Bruni, 1/28/16

1/28/16, "G.O.P. Debate Stars the Ghost of Donald Trump," NY Times, Frank Bruni, opinion, Des Moines, Iowa

"Donald Trump’s absence, of course, was the most compelling presence.

At the Republican debate here on Thursday night, Fox News didn’t put up an empty lectern. It didn’t need to. Trump was remembered. Trump was invoked. His ghost was there, because he’d reshaped his Republican rivals’ images, reconfigured the challenges in front of them, rewritten the rules of this extraordinary race.

“Let’s address the elephant not in the room tonight,” said Megyn Kelly at the very start, and there was no doubt that the tusked behemoth in question had an oddly shaped swirl of vaguely cantaloupe-colored hair. She then asked Ted Cruz what message Trump’s failure to attend the event sent to the voters of Iowa.

Cruz didn’t just discuss Trump. He imitated him.

“I’m a maniac, and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat and ugly,” Cruz said. Addressing Ben Carson, he added: “You’re a terrible surgeon.” 
  
“Now that we’ve gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way,” he continued, “I want to thank everyone here for showing the men and women of Iowa the respect to show up.”

He was mocking Trump, but in the process affirmed that everything revolves around Trump.

Almost a half-hour later, he was still making fun of Trump.

“If you guys ask one more mean question, I may have to leave the stage,” Cruz warned sarcastically.

Marco Rubio got in on the action by chiming in: “Don’t worry, I’m not leaving the stage no matter what you ask me.” The point of reference remained Trump, who was also the subject of some of the first words out of Jeb Bush’s mouth.


“I kind of miss Donald Trump,” Bush said. “He was a little teddy bear to me.” He then claimed that in debates past, he had taken on Trump more boldly than any of his competitors on the stage. Trump, in other words, was the proof of his mettle, the dragon that he alone set out to slay.

Shortly before the event began, Rupert Murdoch, the founder of Fox News, tweeted, “Republican candidates must be looking forward to tonight’s debate. Speaking  

without Donald getting all attention.” 

Wishful thinking.

Trump got plenty of attention, because the drama offstage matched the drama onstage. For the two days leading up to the event, the main story — seemingly the only story — was his decision to skip it: Political suicide or stroke of genius?

In the hours before it, CNN could speak of almost nothing but Trump. It kept flashing footage of the fan-packed rally he had orchestrated just a couple of miles from the debate, to compete with it.

“There are thousands who have waited hours throughout the day,” the anchor Erin Burnett marveled.

When her colleague Anderson Cooper then interviewed a CNN correspondent at the debate itself, the first question he asked her was about how the debaters were likely to adjust to a Trump-less event.

“His shadow is looming large, even though he is not there,” Cooper said to the correspondent, then he turned to the network’s panel of political analysts, who talked about Trump, Trump, Trump.
........... 
And here I am, writing about Trump, Trump, Trump. It’s impossible not to. It would be irresponsible not to, because believe it or not, hate it or love it, he’s the Republican campaign’s great and sobering lesson to the country, telling us things about its discontents that we didn’t properly understand. He’s the campaign’s undeniable force of gravity, exerting a pull on everyone and everything around him.

You could feel that pull at the debate, where the toughness with which Kelly grilled Cruz and Rubio on immigration — even showing footage of past remarks that caught them in flips, flops and contradictions — was a clear demonstration of her readiness to put any candidate on the skewer, not just Trump.

You could feel that pull in the fieriness of many candidates’ manners and the extremes to which they pushed their positions. Trump has set the temperature of the conversation, and it’s a blistering one that had Rubio pledging over and over to keep Guantánamo Bay open and stuff it full of terrorists.

You could feel that pull above all in the duration and emotionalism of the immigration discussion itself. It’s Trump’s promised wall and Trump’s pledges to deport millions of immigrants that have made this issue so prominent and compelled Republican candidates to take harder lines than they previously had.


On Thursday night, those lines tripped up Rubio and Cruz, whose difficult time onstage had everything to do with the fact that Trump wasn’t there. He’s the front-runner; he would have been the main target. Without him, they drew more fire.


“I’m kind of confused,” Bush said of Rubio’s approach to immigration reform over the years. “He led the charge to finally fix this immigration problem that has existed now for, as Marco says, for 30 years. And then he cut and run because it wasn’t popular among conservatives, I guess.”

Rubio didn’t have a persuasive response, but later went after Cruz, insinuating that he once had an approach to immigration less unyielding than the one he’s promoting on the campaign trail.

“Now you want to trump Trump on immigration,” Rubio said.

Political observers have been waiting for Rubio’s breakout moment, and many predicted that he’d have it at this debate. He didn’t. Put frequently on the defensive, he reverted to lines he’d used before and nuggets from his stump speech, and he kept returning to ISIS and military might, military might and ISIS. He came across as overly programmed, one-dimensional and itchy to go to war.

And Cruz couldn’t banish a sour expression and an air of grievance.


Three of the underdogs — Bush, Chris Christie and Rand Paul — had the best moments. Christie circled back too frequently to his beloved, overworked boast that he would make sure that Hillary Clinton never again got close to the White House, but he had a terrific retort to Cruz’s and Rubio’s explanations of their legislative histories on immigration reform.

“I feel like I need a Washington-to-English dictionary,” Christie said.

Bush was genuinely funny, as when he reintroduced Trump toward the end of the debate.

“I mentioned his name again just if anybody was missing him,” Bush said.

Missing him? Not really. I’d be glad to have him gone for good.


But he isn’t and he wasn’t, not on a night when the candidates molded their answers to the reality (and the reality show) that he’s created, not when they felt obliged to bring him up, not when he dominated the discussion without even taking part of it. Nifty trick, that.

Elephant, bear, dragon: Those aren’t the right beasts.
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What the debate made clear is that Trump is all fox."

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Added: 1/28/16, Fox News owner, Rupert Murdoch, says "Donald" has been "getting all attention." The tweet is mentioned in NY Times article above:















Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch on his twitter page says "tonight's debate" won't have "Donald getting all attention." Assuming "Donald" got "all attention" in prior debates, whose fault is that? Two GOP debates before tonight (Fox's third) were run by Murdoch: August 2015 and Nov. 2015. He's therefore saying his own staff is biased and incompetent. He then tells Republican candidates to "aim for Independents." What does that mean? And why suggest it during an event the rights for which were awarded by the Republican Party? At a time when "the largest party in America now is no party?"   


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The rise of independent and unaffiliated voters has rendered the Republican and Democrat parties anachronisms:

1/28/16, "At start of campaign, the last gasp of political parties?" McClatchy, David Lightman

"The largest party in America now is no party — with the ranks of people calling themselves independents at the highest level in more than 75 years of polling. The parties do not control the message. People learn about politics from social media instead of traditional means such as mailings or campaign rallies. And the parties are no longer the sole banker of politics. Big-money interests now effectively create shadow parties with extensive networks of donors of their own."...










 






1/26/16, Trump rally in Iowa City, Iowa: "Audience members wait for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to pass during a campaign event at the University of Iowa Field House, in Iowa City, Iowa, on Jan. 26, 2016." Photo from 1/28/16 McClatchy article.








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Thursday, January 28, 2016

Iranian immigrant to US arrested on suspicion of helping 3 men escape from Orange County jail, passed Sheriff's Dept. background check, wrote books urging children to be multi-cultural and tolerant-LA Times, 1/28/16

1/28/16, "Woman arrested on suspicion of helping trio escape from Orange County jail," LA Times, Richard Winton, James Queally, and Matt Hamilton

"A 44-year-old woman who worked as an English teacher at a Santa Ana jail was arrested Thursday on suspicion of helping three inmates mount a daring escape last week, officials said.

The arrest comes after police and security experts suggested that fugitives Hossein Nayeri, Jonathan Tieu and Bac Duong received outside help when they broke out of the Men's Central Jail on Jan. 22.

The woman, Nooshafarin Ravaghi, a Lake Forest resident, was an English as a Second Language teacher and had been working as a contracted employee at the jail for the last six months, according to Lt. Jeffrey Hallock, a spokesman for the Orange County Sheriff's Department....

Ravaghi passed a Sheriff's Department background check and began working with the program in the fall of 2014, the school district said. She began teaching courses at Men's Central Jail six months ago, Hallock said....

Ravaghi was born in Iran and grew up in Tehran, and spent much of her youth traveling around the world with her father, according to her personal website. She moved to California in 1997, after studying French literature in Tehran and Paris.

Ravaghi earned a graduate degree in education from Cal State Fullerton, the website said. She had taught English, Farsi and French in Orange County to both adults and children since moving to the U.S., she said on the Web page.

Ravaghi also worked as a book editor and wrote an eponymous series of “multicultural books” for children, The Noosha Collection.

“The main character of this collection, Noosha, is a little girl who, in the first seven books, discovers new aspects of her Persian heritage,” she wrote on the website. The book series aimed to foster tolerance, her site said
....
She was arrested at approximately 3:30 p.m., Hallock said. Ravaghi was a part-time English as a second language teacher with Rancho Santiago Community College's Inmate Education Program, according to a statement issued by the school district."...

 







Image caption: "Jonathan Tieu, left, Hossein Nayeri and Bac Duong escaped from the Orange County Men’s Central Jail last week. (Orange County's Sheriff's Department)" LA Times


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Trump at 33 has commanding lead among Tennessee Republican voters, Jan. 15-20, 2016, MTSU poll. Trump also leads among independent voters at 26%. Early voting in Tennessee begins Feb. 10. 'As of now, overall, the big takeaway is that it's Trump in this state'

Trump 32.7
Cruz 16.5
Carson 6.6
Rubio 5.3
Christie 2.4
Bush 1.6
Huckabee .9

Jan. 15-20, 2016, 600 registered Tennessee voters, live telephone interviews. 33% of self identified Republican voters said Trump was their choice to win 2016 presidential election. Error margin 4%.

1/28/16, "New poll: Trump, Clinton lead big in Tennessee," Tennessean, Joey Garrison

"Donald Trump has amassed a commanding lead among Republican voters in Tennessee, according to a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University, and the state's GOP primary has boiled down to race between he and Ted Cruz.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton holds a significant lead over Bernie Sanders among Tennessee Democrats, though her disapproval rating tops all presidential candidates in the state.

The poll, released on Wednesday, is the first survey of the presidential race in Tennesse to come out since a Vanderbilt Univeristy poll in December found Ben Carson leading here. Tennesseans vote on March 1 as part of a so-called "SEC Primary" that features voting in seven Southern states. Early voting in Tennessee begins on Feb. 10.
................
The new MTSU poll shows Trump the top choice of 33 percent of registered Tennessee voters who identified themselves as Republicans, followed by Cruz, who is backed by 17 percent. Carson is the top candidate among 7 percent of Tennessee Republicans. The trio is trailed by Marco Rubio at 5 percent; Chris Christie at 2 percent; Jeb Bush at 2 percent; and Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Rand Paul with each at less than 1 percent.

The poll found 28 percent of Tennessee Republicans said they are undecided.

"As of now, overall, the big takeaway is that it's Trump in this state," said Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at MTSU. "He's certainly appears to be in the lead, particularly among Republicans, and relatively strong support from independents — with the important caveat that there's a lot of polarization regarding him."...

The poll is a snapshot of 600 registered voters in Tennessee-Republicans, Democrats and independents-taken from Jan. 15 through Jan. 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

This is a developing story. Check back at Tennessean.com for a more in-depth analysis of the poll data." Image above by AP
 
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1/28/16, "Trump leads Cruz among Tennessee Republican voters, but many still undecided," MTSU poll, MTSU.org, Ken Blake, Murfreesboro, Tenn.

"Tennessee’s Republican primary is down to a race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, with Trump holding an advantage but many party voters still undecided, the latest MTSU Poll shows....

“We asked two types of questions about the presidential race to get a sense of where potential voters stand,” said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. 

First, we asked registered voters to name, off the tops of their heads, the one candidate they would most like to see win the election and the one candidate they would least like to see win the election. Second, we asked whether they would favor or oppose each of several specific, current candidates running."...

The poll of 600 registered Tennessee voters was conducted Jan. 15-20 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Voters in Tennessee and 10 other states will go to the polls March 1 in the so-called “SEC primary.”

Trump leads among Republicans, independents

When asked to name the one person they would most like to win the 2016 presidential election, 33 percent of self-described Republican voters named Trump. Cruz came in second, chosen by a significantly smaller 17 percent of Republicans. But 28 percent of GOP voters said they did not know who they would like to see win....

Trump also posted the best numbers among self-described independent voters, with 26 percent naming Trump as the candidate they’d most like to see win. Democrat Sanders, the next-most-popular candidate, came it at a significantly lower 10 percent.

But 30 percent of independents were undecided, and the rest chose candidates who pulled in only single-digit percentages....

Clinton solid among Democrats but least-liked candidate statewide

Statewide opposition to Trump, though notable, was only half as strong as statewide opposition to Clinton. Fifty percent of Tennessee voters – most of them Republicans – named her as the candidate they’d least like to see win the presidency. But 47 percent of self-described Democratic voters in the sample picked Clinton as the candidate they’d most like to see win the presidency. A significantly smaller 15 percent named Sanders....

Methodology

Telephone interviews for the poll were completed by Issues and Answers Network Inc. from among a random sample of registered Tennessee voters age 18 and over. Data were collected using Tennessee statewide voter registration sample of 60 percent landline and 40 percent cell phones. The average interview length was 12 minutes. Quotas by gender and Grand Region were implemented. Data were weighted based on respondent age to ensure the data represent Tennessee registered voters. The survey’s error margin of 4 percentage points indicates one can be 95 percent confident that the actual population figure lies within 4 percentage points (in either direction) of the poll result. Error margins for subgroups can be larger, depending on the subgroup’s size."



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Trump has 7 point lead in Iowa over Republican field, Jan. 24-26, 2016, NBC News Wall St. Journal Marist poll, 450 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers-NBC News

Trump 32
Cruz 25
Rubio 18
Carson 8
Bush 4
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2

Jan. 24-26, 2016, 450 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, 2 pages from poll. Methodology not stated, but poll mentions "land line frame." Error margin 4.6

1/28/16, "Trump Strong in Three Early States as Clinton and Sanders Battle: Poll," NBC News, Carrie Dann

"With just four days to go until the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Ted Cruz with a seven-point lead among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers, while Hillary Clinton remains just three points in front of Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. 

In New Hampshire, where voters will head to the polls on February 9,...Trump still has a double-digit lead over Cruz, who finished second in the Granite State survey. 

And in South Carolina, where NBC/WSJ/Marist conducted its first survey of likely primary voters this election season, both Trump and Clinton hold commanding leads....
 
"Trump is positioned to run the house in these first three states. His supporters are committed and plan to turn out," said Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Will it happen? The answer depends on when or if anti-Trump sentiment will coalesce to interrupt his march to the nomination."...

Iowa

In the Hawkeye State, real estate mogul Donald Trump now leads the GOP pack with 32 percent support from likely GOP caucus-goers. Texas senator Ted Cruz gets 25 percent, Florida senator Marco Rubio has 18 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has eight percent and former Florida governor Jeb Bush has four percent. All other Republican candidates get just two percent backing apiece from likely caucus-goers.



The results are an improvement for Trump, who trailed Cruz 24 percent to 28 percent in the same poll less than three weeks ago....

The Iowa survey of 3,040 adults was conducted January 24 through January 26, 2016. The margin of error for 450 likely Republican caucus-goers is +/- 4.6 percentage points. The margin of error for 426 likely Democratic caucus-goers is +/- 4.7 percentage points."...Image above from NBC News

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Above, 1/26/16, Trump rally in Iowa City, Iowa: "Audience members wait for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to pass during a campaign event at the University of Iowa Field House, in Iowa City, Iowa, on Jan. 26, 2016." Photo from 1/28/16 article: "At start of campaign, the last gasp of political parties?" McClatchy, David Lightman

"The largest party in America now is no party — with the ranks of people calling themselves independents at the highest level in more than 75 years of polling. The parties do not control the message. People learn about politics from social media instead of traditional means such as mailings or campaign rallies. And the parties are no longer the sole banker of politics. Big-money interests now effectively create shadow parties with extensive networks of donors of their own

The result: People are tuning out and turning away.

In 2012, average voter turnout for statewide primaries for president, governor and U.S. Senate plunged to its lowest level since the modern primary system became popular in 1972.

“No one likes political parties anymore,” said Jan Leighley, who studies voter behavior at American University, where she is a professor of government. “They no longer have to work through the political process,” added Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute.

It’s a historic change in voter behavior. The Democratic and Republican parties have dominated American politics since the mid-1850s. They grew and prospered as inclusive coalitions that tolerated diverse views for the sake of winning elections and then consolidating power....

“Americans’ attachment to the two major political parties in recent years is arguably the weakest Gallup has recorded since the advent of its polls,” Gallup reported in January.

Just 29 percent called themselves Democrats last year, it found, “making it safe to conclude that the current (number) is also the low point in Gallup polling history.” Republican loyalty was only 1 percentage point above its recent low of 25 percent three years ago. The bloc of independents reached 40 percent in 2011, and it has stayed at or above that level ever since.

The parties’ challenge is clear in states of all sizes. In New Hampshire, site of the first primary election, at least 40 percent register as “undeclared,” meaning they have no formal affiliation with a political party. 

In 2014, California had twice as many voters without a party affiliation as it did 20 years earlier. The same year, Florida had 47 percent more independent voters than a decade earlier.

Most indifferent to parties: young Americans. Nearly half the millennials identified as independents in 2014, Pew found, more than the combined total of those willing to be called either Democrats or Republicans.

“I never want to write down that I’m a Republican,” said Rebecca Sorensen, a sophomore at Penn State. She leans Republican but is reluctant to openly identify with the party because she supports abortion rights. 

Historically, children adopted their parents’ political views, including identification with the two major parties. Not anymore.

Millennials get information from sources other than from family dinners, neighbors or campaign brochures. If something piques their interest, they turn to Twitter, text messaging, The Skimm and other modern forms of instant communication.

“If I want to know more, I Google it,” said Jayla Akers, a sophomore at Penn State University.

Political parties are seen as too narrowly focused, too interested in keeping incumbents in office.

They gerrymander congressional districts to maximize their chances so that election after election only a handful of House of Representatives races are true contests. Of the House’s 435 seats, 402 incumbents are considered safe bets for re-election this year, said the nonpartisan Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report....

It’s a far cry from freedom from party or faction that the Founding Fathers envisioned.

This two-party system quashes independent thought and the courage to take a stance on positions and kills the free market of ideas our country was supposed to be founded on,” said Ellen Read, a political activist in New Hampshire. 

Parties for generations did welcome differing views and broader membership.

“The Republican Party, both in this state and nationally, is a broad party. There is room in our tent for many views,” Ronald Reagan, then governor of California, said in 1967....

Republicans once had a strong bloc of abortion rights supporters, for example, but in 1976 the party formally included in its platform support for a constitutional amendment “to restore protection of the right to life for unborn children.” It’s now unmistakably the anti-abortion party....

Democrats also were critical of their own tactics....“It’s true that today’s multifaceted political landscape changes the footprint of national parties,” said Democratic Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
But she noted that “in the primaries, we set the rules for the nomination and nothing can replace the unique ability of the national parties to effectively organize and mobilize voters,” and their role in the general election is so detailed it “cannot be replicated externally.”

While independents are gaining clout, so are the big-money groups that now operate as virtual political parties.

Take Freedom Partners, an organization sponsored by brothers Charles and David Koch of Wichita, Kan. Last year, the group committed to spend $889 million on politics and policy in 2015 and 2016....

And the Koch network does more than just spend money. Twice each year it hosts about 400 executives, who pay dues of $100,000 each, for meetings on politics and policies....

Other alternatives to the parties also are gearing up. In that world, everyday voters ask, how can they ever be heard? Not through the Republican or Democrats parties, say increasing numbers of voters.

As Peter White, a cabin manager in Nottingham, New Hampshire, put it, “You feel the two parties both work for Wall Street and don’t care who wins.”" 

"This version changes the reference to the rise in independents in California to say voters without a party affiliation."

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Among comments to McClatchy article: There's only one party. Media does its part to keep alive the multi-trillion dollar illusion that there are two:

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"Rip Torn" Parties, seriously I don't see any parties. I just see the Democrats and the Republicans feigning they are two different parties but in reality they are one in the same. The media keeps up the lie as they dupe the electorate."


"Walter Ziobro It's about time. The Democratic and Republican Parties have essentially been philosophically irrelevant since WW2. Prior to that, the Dems were the party of states rights, free trade, and Southern agrarian interests. The Reps were the party of federalism, protectionism, and Northern industrial interests. Since then, both have morphed so much that each has basically been turned inside out, and upside down. Good riddance to both."





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I'm the daughter of an Eagle Scout and World War II Air Force pilot born in Brooklyn, finally settling in New Jersey.